Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 5/12-14. Likely voters. MoE 4% (12/3-6 results)
If 2008 election for Congress were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Ethan Berkowitz, the Democrat, and Don Young, the Republican?
Young (R) 40 (42)
Berkowitz (D) 50 (49)
If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Mark Begich, the Democrat, and Ted Stevens, the Republican?
Stevens (R) 43 (41)
Begich (D) 48 (47)
I was shocked to see the numbers after the first poll. I was even worried that they might be a bit of an outlier. But then Stevens' own pollster helpfully confirmed the numbers.
Local pollsters are not surprised by the numbers. Dave Dittman, who's firm Dittman Research is polling for Stevens, said the publicity on corruption investigations is hurting the Republicans.
"It's interesting and it's early but I wasn't shocked," Dittman said. "Both Congressman Young and Sen. Stevens have been under attack (or) at least the subject of a lot of negative information and news stories and things for almost two years. I would think it's got to have an effect."
So we knew they weren't off base.
This new poll confirms that we've just got a bit of float in the MoE. The Democrats are still leading their corrupt Republican incumbents. And Alaska is definitely a state where Obama at the top of the Democratic ticket will pay HUGE dividends:
McCain (R) 49
Obama (D) 42
McCain (R) 55
Clinton (D) 37
You better believe Begich and Berkowitz are cheering Obama's primary victory. Meanwhile, Obama is legitimately competitive in the state. That's some map-changing mojo at work.
Must be all the black people and latte sippers that live in Alaska.
ALASKA POLL RESULTS - MAY 2008
The Research 2000 Alaska Poll was conducted from May 12 through May 14, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 290 (49%)
Women 310 (51%)
Democrats 120 (20%)
Republicans 191 (32%)
Independents/Other 289 (48%)
18-29 102 (17%)
30-44 216 (36%)
45-59 198 (33%)
60+ 84 (14%)
U.S CONGRESS:
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ethan Berkowitz? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):
VERY VERY
FAV FAV UNFAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 19% 30% 12% 11% 28%
MEN 17% 27% 16% 13% 27%
WOMEN 21% 33% 8% 9% 29%
DEMOCRATS 37% 46% 6% 5% 6%
REPUBLICANS 6% 16% 20% 18% 40%
INDEPENDENTS 21% 33% 9% 9% 28%
18-29 23% 34% 8% 5% 30%
30-44 16% 29% 14% 13% 28%
45-59 21% 31% 10% 10% 28%
60+ 15% 27% 16% 15% 27%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Don Young? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):
VERY VERY
FAV FAV UNFAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 11% 27% 35% 23% 4%
MEN 13% 32% 31% 21% 3%
WOMEN 9% 22% 39% 25% 5%
DEMOCRATS 4% 8% 53% 32% 3%
REPUBLICANS 19% 43% 20% 14% 4%
INDEPENDENTS 9% 25% 38% 25% 3%
18-29 6% 23% 39% 27% 5%
30-44 13% 29% 33% 21% 4%
45-59 10% 25% 36% 25% 4%
60+ 15% 30% 31% 20% 4%
QUESTION: If 2008 election for Congress were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Ethan Berkowitz, the Democrat, and Don Young, the Republican?
BERKOWITZ YOUNG UNDECIDED
ALL 50% 40% 10%
MEN 46% 45% 9%
WOMEN 54% 35% 11%
DEMOCRATS 85% 6% 9%
REPUBLICANS 18% 71% 11%
INDEPENDENTS 57% 34% 9%
18-29 54% 35% 11%
30-44 47% 44% 9%
45-59 52% 38% 10%
60+ 46% 44% 10%
U.S. SENATE:
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mark Begich? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):
VERY VERY
FAV FAV UNFAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 21% 31% 14% 11% 23%
MEN 19% 28% 18% 13% 22%
WOMEN 23% 34% 10% 9% 24%
DEMOCRATS 33% 40% 7% 5% 15%
REPUBLICANS 9% 21% 24% 18% 28%
INDEPENDENTS 24% 34% 11% 9% 22%
18-29 24% 34% 11% 7% 24%
30-44 19% 30% 17% 13% 21%
45-59 23% 32% 12% 8% 25%
60+ 18% 27% 16% 16% 23%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ted Stevens? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):
VERY VERY
FAV FAV UNFAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 10% 28% 34% 24% 4%
MEN 12% 32% 31% 22% 3%
WOMEN 8% 24% 37% 26% 5%
DEMOCRATS 4% 14% 50% 30% 2%
REPUBLICANS 19% 41% 20% 17% 3%
INDEPENDENTS 7% 25% 37% 26% 5%
18-29 6% 23% 39% 29% 3%
30-44 12% 31% 32% 21% 4%
45-59 8% 25% 35% 27% 5%
60+ 13% 33% 30% 19% 5%
QUESTION: If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Mark Begich, the Democrat, and Ted Stevens, the Republican?
BEGICH STEVENS UNDECIDED
ALL 48% 43% 9%
MEN 44% 48% 8%
WOMEN 52% 38% 10%
DEMOCRATS 84% 7% 9%
REPUBLICANS 14% 76% 10%
INDEPENDENTS 56% 36% 8%
18-29 53% 38% 9%
30-44 45% 45% 10%
45-59 50% 42% 8%
60+ 45% 46% 9%
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?
APPROVE DISAPPROVE
ALL 39% 61%
MEN 42% 58%
WOMEN 36% 64%
DEMOCRATS 5% 95%
REPUBLICANS 73% 27%
INDEPENDENTS 31% 69%
18-29 35% 65%
30-44 42% 58%
45-59 37% 63%
60+ 43% 57%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choice were between Barack Obama, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican?
MCCAIN OBAMA UNDECIDED
ALL 49% 42% 9%
MEN 55% 38% 7%
WOMEN 43% 46% 11%
DEMOCRATS 10% 86% 4%
REPUBLICANS 78% 9% 13%
OTHER 47% 45% 8%
18-29 42% 50% 8%
30-44 53% 36% 11%
45-59 45% 48% 7%
60+ 55% 35% 10%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choice were between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican?
MCCAIN CLINTON UNDECIDED
ALL 55% 37% 8%
MEN 62% 32% 6%
WOMEN 48% 42% 10%
DEMOCRATS 12% 84% 4%
REPUBLICANS 81% 7% 12%
OTHER 56% 37% 7%
18-29 47% 46% 7%
30-44 60% 31% 9%
45-59 51% 42% 7%
60+ 61% 30% 9%