(auto-promoted from comments)
Is it the map or the math...?
Hey, we have two nominees, and it's the silly season for speculation on VP candidates and somewhat less so on the electoral map in the fall.
The media's started to play the horse race game with the electoral college already, and the Clinton campaign has been all too eager to embrace the conventional wisdom about which states "matter" in the general election and which don't.
Ignoring the fact that the "swing states" in question have only really been established as such in the last two election cycles, I also think it's clear that Obama's got appeal that will play in many states the national Democratic candidates might've written off in the past. To that end, I got out the electoral map and figured out a plausible path to the Presidency for Obama that doesn't involve any of the allegedly vital "big swing states". Read more on the flip.
Note: this is not a reverse "Southern Strategy" (can win without the south) -- I'm not suggesting Obama can't or won't put the "big swing states" in play. He will. But he can win without them. Here's how.
Obama could/should win easily: California, Oregon, Washington, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, New York, Vermont, Maine, Massachussetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, CD D.C., and Hawaii. I'm also adding Iowa to this list since I think that's actually going to be a no-brainer pickup for him given the caucus results and the proximity to Illinois.
That's 217.
I'm punting on Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Michigan for argument's sake here.
Here's the unconventional path part.
Virginia - 13 electoral votes (EV). Virginia's demographics are changing, they have a strong popular former governor running for the Senate, and just elected Jim Webb to the Senate. I think it's an easy pick-up for Obama, one of McCain's "home" states.
That's 230.
Colorado - 9 EV. Home to our convention, strong support in the primaries, changing demographics, western independence.
That's 239.
New Mexico - 5 EV. Should've been a pick up in 2004 after carrying it in 2000, again the demographics help the trend Democratic.
That's 244.
Nevada - 5 EV. It's about Clark County, Obama organized it early, and strong union support and the change in population (combined with being particularly hard hit by bread and butter issues) should turn NV blue.
That's 249.
Missouri - 11 EV. Cf. Claire McCaskill. As Kos has pointed out repeatedly, Missouri is about as split as you can get right now, but it's trended Blue and the extra turnout for Obama should give him a clear victory here.
That's 260.
Mississippi - 6 EV. Other diarists have commented on this elsewhere, I certainly think it's in play because of the turnout and the recent congressional seat turnover.
That's 266.
Montana - 3 EV. The home of Gov. Brian Schweitzer, Montana voted for Clinton in '92 even before the demographics shifted. Montanans will be interested to hear about Obama's support for clean coal (one of Schweitzer's special issues) and the environmentalists are also more prominent here than might be expected in, say, Wyoming. Obama speaks smartly on the realities of extractive industries and I think he'll play in the general election.
That's 269.
Nebraska 1st CD - 1 EV. Omaha will play well for Obama, and the support from neighboring states will help carry him over in Nebraska's first CD. Nebraska is one of two states (Maine the other) that splits out electoral votes by winners of congressional districts.
That's 270!
There's 270 votes WITHOUT Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Michigan. And I think Michigan's an easy add to Obama's campaign once he spends some time there.