If both sides don't reach 2025, 2118, or 2209 then it will go to the convention. Also, the latest Wesley Clark/RBC ramblings tend to point to it going to the convention. In this instance, Senator Obama would have the advantage in delegates.
Obama's endgame seems clear. Various test votes would be offered up to show that he had a plurality of the votes and to give Senator Clinton the chance to desist gracefully. Certainly these votes would become more and more serious. Probably ending with MI/FL or the nominating vote.
What does Senator Clinton's endgame look like if she is still pursuing the presidency and why is it problematic? Please follow after the jump.
Senator Clinton's strategy seems to be predicated on one thing: flipping delegates. Here are the various problems she will encounter:
1) Senator Clinton went to the stick with the SD's too early.
By threatening SD's early, a Superdelegate who wants a job in the next administration has to worry about Senator Clinton punishing the early intransigence or holding a grudge. The Carville/Judas episode shows that they do hold a grudge. This is a massive disincentive to switch.
2) Gate crashers vote in House/Senate primaries.
Any elected SD who endorsed Obama who flips is going to be looking at a sure primary challenge having angered people who tend to vote in primaries. My guess is that a couple of these would be front page Daily Kos challenges.
3)Senator Obama is trying to flip people as well.
When a smarter, better organized campaign is probably matching delegate for delegate, that can't help.
4) Losing early test votes is going to make Senator Clinton's campaign seem like a sinking ship
If Senator Obama can hold together his delegates for the early test votes, Senator Clinton probably can't wrangle enough previously committed Obama delegates.
The convention might seem a like a chaotic place to choose a candidate but I can't see how the endgame gets HER the requisite number. I would give about a 1.5% chance that a compromise candidate would be nominated.
I apologize for the speculative nature of this diary but game theory interests me, so I'm trying to get a big picture view of how this works. If somebody can think of an endgame in a convention where Senator Clinton is running for president(and not VP or anything else), please let me know.