To read the pundit press and blogsphere is be told that the Democratic Party is severely split, and that Clinton supporters are on the verge of leaving the party. In fact, Clinton supporters themselves in blogsphere are repeating this. See for example BTD's post this morning on Talk Left.
But is this true?
No, it isn't.
The table below compares Obama's performance among Democrats in the most recent CBS CBS poll poll taken during the summer in 2004, 2000 and 1996. This poll is almost identical the most recent Rasmussen poll.
|
1996 |
2000 |
2004 |
2008 |
For Democrat |
90 |
73 |
87 |
80 |
For GOP |
6 |
17 |
9 |
12 |
Net Dem Advantage |
84 |
56 |
78 |
68 |
Here is the key point: at this point Obama runs better than Gore did among Democrats, and pretty to close to where Kerry did. But at this point in the cycle Kerry and Gore had had months to consolidate the party. Obama has just completing a tough primary season: and is almost exactly where they were.
We have to stop buying into the Democrats are not united frame. IT ISN"T TRUE!!!
Even more importantly, though, Rassmussen found that the Democratic Party is bigger than it was in 2004. Democrats now lead in Party ID 41.7 to 31.6 (versus 1.6% advantage on election day 2004).
I would expect that Obama will improve his numbers among Democrats over the next few days, but his current position among Democrats is strong.
Finally, let me once again observe how rarely people who write about politics bother to check political history.