Sunday's Rasmussen national three day tracking poll shows Obama with 46% and McCain with only 39%, the first time that McCain has fallen below 40% in a head to head matchup with Obama. When leaners are included, Obama leads 49% to 43%.
http://rasmussenreports.com/...
Obama's 7% lead and 6% lead including leaners are unchanged from Saturday's results.
Almost as many respondents said that they were certain to vote for Obama, 36%, as the 39% captured by McCain; only 31% of respondents said they are certain to vote for McCain.
This poll confirms a trend seen in various recent state polls. Obama has been holding steady, but McCain has been bleeding support at a steady rate since Obama became the presumptive Democratic nominee. Thus, it appears that the lead built up by Obama over the last several weeks has resulted not from consolidation of Democratic support, such as Clinton supporters coming home, but rather from a collapse in McCain support.
Another Rasmussen poll released today shows McCain with only a 9% lead over Obama in Arkansas, 48% to 39%. In Rasmussen's Arkansas poll last month, McCain led by 57% to 33%, a 24% margin. This is the first Rasmussen Arkansas poll in which McCain has fallen below 50% in a matchup against Obama. With this poll, Rasmussen has moved Arkansas from "Safe Republican" to "Likely Republican" in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.