Update: had to switch AZ which I had originally given to Obama.
I'll concede right away that this is a best-case scenario. However, I believe that when the rest of the general population begins to pay attention (and not just us political junkies) they're going to realize what a flawed candidate McCain really is. A few qualifiers and the map after the jump...
First, I'm assuming that African-American and young voters will turnout in record numbers. I know both groups have historically had low turnout. This will be the election where they show up - finally.
Second, religious right doesn't fall for the "gay marriage" initiatives this time around. They've already fallen for that bait and switch once, they won't do it again and they stay home on election day.
Third, pieces of the old jallopy that is the McCain campaign will begin to fall off as we go down the road to November. Obama will destroy McCain at every debate. McCain will have some public temper tantrum. McCain will not be successful at countering the "McCain = third Bush term" meme. Obama wins the general election by 5-10% and the electoral college map looks like this:
click here to see the map.
source for map-maker: www.270towin.com