This is getting to be like Whack-a-Mole. No sooner does one diary appear but another one pops up. I can't be expected to reply to each individually. So I want to put my arguments as to why it is just not remotely possible. In my view the very public saber-rattling by the USA and Israel serves a single purpose: to encourage the Iranians to buy the offer the Europeans are putting in front of them, backed up by some serious economic threats. It's going to be hard for Iran to swallow this one, but I expect the next President to add the sweetener of normalized relations with the USA and the ending of all economic sanctions in return for the nuclear and a couple of other concessions. In any case, in the short-term, war is beyond improbable for the reasons listed below.
- If an attack were imminent, Bush would be trying to prepare the country. He would make some major addresses directly to the country on the subject. He hasn't.
- Bush went to Europe to help beef up the economic pressure on Iran, hence the announcement by the British PM on intensified sanctions. You don't spend a lot of time beefing up sanctions when you are about to deal a crushing military blow. Bush has put a lot of time and effort into ensuring a very strong economic offensive with the Europeans together. That seems to be the key part of his strategy. On the other side, convincing the Iranians that the "crazy" Israelis are straining at the leash may help focus Iranian minds even more. So that strategy needs to play out.
- We have 140,000 hostages, otherwise called US troops, next door to Iran. We cannot do anything to get Shiites aroused or make it worthwhile for Iran to crank up its destabilization efforts. Any upsurge in Iraqi violence undercuts the victory message Bush is trying to go out on.
- Oil is currently running at about $135 a barrel. Maybe you want to see $250 a barrel oil, but others don't and by others I mean the rest of the world, and that includes the Bush admin that is trying not to have the GOP obliterated in November. And no, war would not increase support for the GOP. The American public has seen the Middle-east war movie; it walked out.
- The Bush administration is begging the Saudis to increase oil production (begging I tells ya!). So how fucked up would it be to do something that undoes all that begging?
- There are elections coming up. Iranians are very unhappy with their President, not the least because only 10% of them can spell his name. But he is expected to do poorly because the economy is fucked up, partly due to economic sanctions. Iran is getting rapidly to the point where it can have a nuclear program or a functioning economy, but not both. The voters may have something to say about that.
- Outgoing Presidents, even Bush, don't start wars and then hand off to a new President. I know, I know, Bush is crazy. So you say. I don't think so. He is incompetent and arrogant, but I do think he is ready to leave and there are just no new initiatives left in him.
- Oh yeah, one more reason. What military attack would you mount? Yes, you could bomb a lot of stuff, but then you would be left with an absolutely incandescent rage in Iran at the US and convince any doubters that a nuclear weapons program wasn't just desirable it was imperative. You would make all of your tentative allies in Iraq and the rest of the mid-east give you the finger. In short, you would ruin everything you gained at enormous cost over the last few years. Bush has enough self-interest to know that at least.
Those are just some of the reasons that compel me to believe that war with Iran is not just unlikely, it is essentially impossible.