Sorry to be a one-note Willie, but as my doppelganger Professor Pollkatz has been saying for five years now, Bush's approval goes down and up as the price of gasoline goes up and down.
The reason I mention this once again is that an awful lot of bloggers and commenters have a smug certainty that Bush is down for the count; he'll be President 28% forever, and he'll hold McCain down with him. I don't think so.
The proof, as they say, is in the pudding. Here's the pudding:
pollkatz.com
(find "Bush Approval and Gasoline Prices," lower right of your screen)
Note, in particular, that Bush has been down in the 30% range for about a year. (It's an index, 2/15/2001 = 100, so the numbers on the right aren't prices or approval numbers.) As gasoline prices receded from their peak ($3.00) in June 2007, Bush's popularity eased upward. When the price bounced up and down that fall, Bush bounced up and down as well. The way that little bumps in price coordinate with little bumps for Bush is almost incredible, but there it is.
The pattern continues. Look at the past month. Gasoline prices' meteoric rise seems to have peaked, at least for now, and in the past 3 weeks have been pretty steady at about $4.10 (I'm using a national average published by the EPA). And Bush's approval is rising.
If the price of gas continues to fall between now and, say, the first week of November, Bush's star will rise. Not a lot -- I doubt that he'll crack 35%. But McCain, having hitched his wagon to Bush's star, will see his popularity rise from his average, in the mid-40% range, and quite possibly over the top.
Progressives, complacency is not an option.