Quinnipiac University/Wall Street Journal/ Washingtonpost.Com have released a new batch of polls today in some important states. Like many recent polls, Obama seems to have bled some of his support this month.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...
Not all terrible news here though.
- Wisc. seems to be stable for Obama and he is still polling with a double digit edge.
- This is the first Colorado poll that McCain has led in for quite some time. It could just be noise (although, thats a 7-point swing), but regardless, Colorado looks to be in play come November and Obama will have a great chance of picking it off this year.
- I don't see Minnesota really being this close. McCain's jump there just seems too high, unless June's poll was an outlier...although some other polls seemed to indicate that it wasn't (Ras. had a Minny poll yesterday saying Obama +13). However, this is maybe one of only a two or three states McCain can try and play offense in. (others may be Michigan and New Hampshire) Why not let him try to compete for the state and use up some resources there. (the GOP convention and possible Pawlenty VP could make things interesting of course..I still think Minny goes Obama come November despite the GOPs best efforts)
In my opinion, the McCain camp would be smart to put all efforts into defense at this point..so I will be happy to see them over extent themselves in a place like Minnesota.
- Overall, the new polls seems to say that McCain did much better with independents and males. Not surprising. These groups seem to be the ones (along with Hispanics to a degree, but the O-Man seems to be locking up that demographic of late) where the most headway can be made by both candidates. I think we can hope that the recent overseas tour may help some independents warm up to an Obama presidency thanks to what has largely been considered a successful trip that will help Barack with his 'commander-in-chief' creds. It seems to me that many of them want to lean Obama, but are worried he doesn't have the chops to handle foriegn policy in a post Bush world. The Maliki development and his overall warm reception overseas should help in this department I think. This could also help him with males as well.
Overall, it will be interesting to see if these results are different the next time Q polls these states. I'm very interested to see how this overseas trip will play out with voters...so far, seems like Barack hit it out of the park. Time will tell.
Here is a juicy tid-bit from the site that sums up where McCain is getting his advantages from:
Sen. McCain has picked up support in almost every group in every state, especially among independent voters and men voters. The Republican now leads Obama among independent voters in Michigan and Minnesota. Overall results show:
Colorado: McCain is up by a nose 46 - 44 percent, compared to a 49 - 44 percent Obama lead June 26;
Michigan: Obama tops McCain 46 - 42 percent, compared to a 48 - 42 percent lead last time;
Minnesota: Obama edges ahead 46 - 44 percent, compared to a 54 - 37 percent Obama lead;
Wisconsin: Obama leads McCain 50 - 39 percent, compared to 52 - 39 percent.
New Q-Polls