+12 Overall, +41 Latinos
I know that a few diaries have been posted on Research 2000’s latest poll conducted between July 25-27 that has him leading by 12 points, but I wanted to expand on this and dive deeper into the numbers.
The poll was conducted for KCCI-TV, KCRG-TV, WSBT-TV, and The Concord Monitor. It consisted of 1,100 likely voters and carried a 3% margin of error.
Obama 51%
Mccain 39%
Bob Barr and Nader in the mix 5%
Poll breakdown Here
Cross posted at my site: www.ourhispanicvoices.com
Promoted to the Rec List, Thanks!
| McCain | Obama |
All | 39% | 51% |
Men | 45% | 45% |
Women | 34% | 56% |
White | 49% | 41% |
Blacks | 4% | 90% |
Latinos | 24% | 65% |
see full breakdown of ages here along with Barr and Nader Breakdown
update: Sorry, when I was building the table I got the women and white lable swapped, corrected now.
The overall numbers are good for Obama and as in other polls Women, Blacks and Latinos carry him over the top and he is winning all the age groups with the exception of those over 60. As of 12:00am R2000 does not have this info on their web site, but I expect it to be up some time before the morning rush.
The bounce, which I wasn’t sure would come because a lot of low information voters normally don’t pay attention to current events, came in force and in a wave I didn’t expect. The breakdown of the numbers show that Blacks and Latinos remained strong and along lines where they have been polling, the bounce came with an uptick in Women and the rest was a small increase in demographics across the board.
For those familiar with my site I like to look at the Hispanic community. I know the margin of error is usually larger when you look at the breakdown of a poll, but some of these are right in line. Blacks for instance are in line with what all indications tell us will happen on election night and Latinos are right in line with polls specific to the demographic that have been released in July. The Latino number is a problem that the McCain campaign seems to be grinding their teeth over.
Yesterday on Politico.com there was a story about McCain and his frustration with the lack of support from Latinos. His camp saw a path to victory through the demographic and were counting on it. They have spent heavily on TV and Radio ads all through June and July and have seen no movement in the Latino community. It seems that they never expected to win the demographic, just pull the mythical Bush numbers (40-44%) that the flawed exit polls said existed. The problem is that those numbers never existed. They have been debunked and to assume you will get fictional Bush numbers after turning the demographic into a political football in 2006 is silly and to assume to get 40% when the GOP only pulled 26-27% in 2006 is asinine.
GOP strategist Bill McInturff has long emphasized that earning 40 percent of the Hispanic vote is critical for Republicans to win. Today, McInturff is John McCain’s pollster, and by his metric McCain has a serious Latino problem
You think???
You have to understand in a way that the Republican party is damaged among Hispanics," conceded Hessy Fernandez, McCain’s spokesperson for Hispanic media.
Smart guy this Fernandez is... And Obama isn’t satisfied with pulling traditional Hispanic number, he’s going for a larger share and I think he can pull it.
On Wednesday, the Obama campaign announced its first media buy of the general election on Hispanic radio in Florida, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada. Obama has not yet purchased advertising on Hispanic television, while the McCain campaign has been up for months on both TV and radio.
Those ads, though, have yet to move his (McCain) numbers much. Both Gallup and Pew show his support to be fairly steady at and 10 percentage points less than Bush’s in the summer of 2004.
That last line in politico’s article is not correct, he is +15% below Bush 2004 numbers (if you buy into the argument that he got 40%). McCain is 10 points below traditional GOP numbers of 35%.
If Obama is able to turn out the vote among Hispanics then that pretty graphic the Huffington Post has up from Pollster.com will be crazy blue when you add NV, CO, long shot AZ & TX, and possibility FL to the mix. Don’t get lazy, but I’d rather be in our spot then in John Flip-Flop McCain’s.
UPDATE 2: Since I'm on the Rec List, thought I would share with you the Pew Hispanic Center poll that came out last week
Obama 66%
McCain 23%
Here is the diary I posted on it. Lots of new Hispanics registered this year, so far 1 million in the primaries and an expected 3 million total before the general election. Those are great numbers
If new polls come out in the morning and I'm still up here, I'll update with new bounce polls.