Barack Obama's issues-based strategy is subtle, but it is building.
Obama has been slow to build the issues strategy but will be very effective. He has let John McCain huff and puff around for the last two months growing increasingly shrill in attacking him, and letting McCain shoot himself in the foot on the economy. Now Obama is going to roll out the attacks on McCain's positions and show that McCain has taken positions at odds with the interest of Americans on every single issue they hold important - without giving McCain time to refine or back away from his positions.
Every issues and priorities poll over the last several months has identified three separate issues/priorities that Americans think are the three most important ones facing America:
- The pitiful state of the economy
- The war in Iraq
- Sky-high energy prices
Obama maintains, and has always maintained, that these are connected. John McCain doesn't. But that's precisely the view that Americans want to hold... that the economy, Iraq, and energy prices are connected. And Barack Obama's issues strategy is to point out that:
- his credibility on these issues is high
- John McCain's credibility on these issues is low
- McCain's proposals on these are a continuation of Bush policies
It is the tie to Bush policy that is the killer for McCain. Obama has largely played defense so far during the general campaign, choosing not to attack McCain aggressively on economic policy or energy but allowing McCain to mire his campaign in a series of gaffes (including the Gramm moment) that sapped his credibility on the economy. Knowing that these three issues are viewed as the most important (far more than leadership, far more than crime or health care or terrorism or other issues), Obama has allowed McCain to attack him principally on these peripheral issues while he waited until McCain would no longer have time to refine or modify his policy proposals before the fall.
Obama's strategy of firing back at John McCain - only once the stage was fully set - began today in Springfield, Missouri. This choice for a stage was no accident... as I'll explain below, Missouri is one of a network of a few slightly-Republican-leaning states that Obama intends to pick off on a tactical level. But let's return to the town hall.
As discussed in dansac's brilliant diary, Obama hit McCain hard on the economy, coming out firing (metaphorically of course, but full of allusions to Old West Duels) on McCain's bungled understanding of economic issues and his disastrous proposals. In his discussion, dansac refers to several instances where Obama ties the elements of the Three-Corner Issue Strategy directly together:
You can't tell me we can spend $10-12 billion a month in Iraq, but we can't invest some of that money right here in the United States of America. That’s what we can do in this election. The choice is ours.
or
Where was George Bush for the last eight years? For that matter, where has John McCain been for the last 25? Now there idea is drill for more oil...I know it's tempting, but it's not real.
Thanks to dansac for pointing out those two quotes. Here's another one I noted from the town hall... Obama hitting McCain on the purchasing power decline ($1000 over the Bush years) that the average American family as suffered under Bush. He went on to tie those purchasing power declines to oil and gas prices.
Well, folks, this is the beginning of the offensive strategy. Watch for Obama to begin to hit McCain everywhere on the economy, Iraq and energy... and watch for that hit to be co-ordinated. Watch for Obama to link these issues together over and over again. And watch in particular for Obama to refine that message on a tactical basis.
What I set out above was an overarching, strategic plan for the campaign. But there is a tactical plan as well... Obama's flooding of seemingly moderate-Republican states with armies of volunteers, field offices, and a big-time ground campaign designed to push that issues-based offensive. Obama is going to be looking at forcing McCain to play defense on exactly the ground that is worst for him: states that are hard-hit economically like Michigan, Missouri and Indiana; states hit badly by high energy prices like Montana and Nevada; states strongly opposed to the Iraq war like New Hampshire. Much of this territory is trending slightly Republican so far. Obama's push will utterly overwhelm that slight lean, and pave the way for a substantial victory in November, a victory that all the attacks in the world on Rev. Wright or Michelle Obama could not possibly overcome, because it's centered on the actual issues of most concern to voters.
From here on out, mark my words : Obama's going to attack McCain on the kinds of things that matter. McCain's going to attack Obama on the kinds of things that don't. IF Obama can get that message out - hence the ground campaign, so that the media can't interfere with the message - he will win, big.