Welcome back for more speculation! Today concludes the final elimination series of possibilities for Obama's v.p., and starts a new one ("final final"?).
The previous series began with the bottom 14 names of 28, eliminated the lowest vote-getter(s) and replaced them with new name(s) from just up the list, reaveraging as we went (so each thread's bottom vote-getter[s] may not have been cut next--who was cut was determined by averages of all this series's votes). Since Obama will pick soon, we'll see if we'll have time to complete another round before we see if the DKos wisdom of crowds is. Gen. (Ret.) Wesley Clark (AR) defeated Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (KS) to win the previous series. Starting today we'll run the top 14 names I now consider most likely (I know I may be wrong). I was going to run Bayh against the winner of this series alone, but it was pointed out this would not be exactly fair, so since Bayh and Clark have now both made the cut for this series, I decided to skip that.
Please discuss any v.p. candidates in the comments. The most correct format would be to state their name, unless you have further comments. I'm happy to hear all ideas in this open thread, and I'm no official gatekeeper, so play nice.
(continued below the fold)
My personal favorite running mate for Obama remains Fmr. Sen. Sam Nunn (GA). After that, I'd have to go with Sen. Russ Feingold (WI), Govs. Tim Kaine (VA) and Kathleen Sebelius (KS), all tied. I still think Nunn has a slight edge in likeliness. Although, I should say that a couple of days ago I received some information which leads me to believe that it could very well be Gov. Sebelius. Y'all oughta know I'm no kind of political insider, and I don't want to say too much about it, but suffice it to say that it involves somebody who might have a good idea about the decision from the Sebelius end expressing some (possibly overenthusiastic) confidence in Sebelius to me rather indirectly, perhaps without meaning to, and I perceived it as a strong hint. I'm convinced the GOP v.p. nominee will be Gov. Mark Sanford (SC).
I'm also not including some who might make good choices, but probably not in 2008, though I know some may disagree, notably: Sen. John Kerry (MA), who I like for Secretary of State or Defense or another position, Govs. Christine Gregoire (WA) and Brian Schweitzer (MT), who need to run for reelection and Sen. Barbara Boxer (CA), my senator who I like, while not always agreeing with her on everything, because I feel that ticket would be too easily caricatured as the most liberal ticket in the universe and etc., etc. I know, I shouldn't be influenced by that likelihood, but I think that ticket would have too many liabilities not outweighed by possible electoral strengths. (I think that about some other names I've included anyway, but they've done very well in polling, so that's how they got their pass.) And Govs. Ted Strickland (OH) and Ed Rendell (PA) have completely ruled out serving, as have senatorial candidate Fmr. Gov. Mark Warner and Sen. Jim Webb (VA), along with Fmr. Sen. Bill Bradley (NJ), and Gen. James L. Jones seems to support McCain, so they've been retired from polling here.
I've made the editorial decision to keep Sen. Joe Biden (MBNA) active despite his revealing that he had not been asked to submit information to Obama's v.p. vetting team at a certain recent point. And I've decided to include Sen. Jack Reed (RI), as his strongest demurral could be seen to have been conditional, and he's a solid candidate. I may still eliminate candidates based upon their own new Shermanesque statements in the future, but I doubt that'll be much of a factor with the short time remaining.
So, this series will run for about two to 13 threads, including today, subject to short-circuiting by an Obamannouncement.
Here's the 28-candidate field we considered over the previous elimination series, in order of average votes in every thread from #1 through #44:
Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (KS)
[Fmr. Sen. John Edwards (NC)]**
Gen. (Ret.) Wesley Clark (AR)
Gov. Bill Richardson (NM)
Sen. Joe Biden (MBNA)
Sen. Chuck Hagel (NE)
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (TN)
Gov. Tim Kaine (VA)
Rep. Robert Wexler (FL)
Sen. Russ Feingold (WI)
Fmr. Sen. Sam Nunn (GA)
Sen. Claire McCaskill (MO)
Fmr. Sen. Bob Graham (FL)
Fmr. Gov. Howard Dean (VT)
Caroline Kennedy (NY)
Gov. Janet Napolitano (AZ)
[Fmr. Sen. Bill Bradley (NJ)]*
Sen. Sherrod Brown (OH)
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (NY)
[Sen. Jack Reed (RI)]*
Fmr. Sen. Max Cleland (GA)
Gen. (Ret.) Anthony Zinni (VA?)
Gov. Brad Henry (OK)
Fmr. Sen. Tom Daschle (SD)
Sen. Bill Nelson (FL)
Fmr. Gov. Ray Mabus (MS)
Rep. Chet Edwards (TX)
Sen. Jeff Bingaman (NM)
* ELIMINATED FOR SHERMANESQUE "NO" TO BEING V.P. NOMINEE
** NOW OVERWHELMINGLY UNLIKELY
And the order of these candidates from the winner to the first eliminated was: Clark, Sebelius, Biden, Hillary Clinton, Kaine, Feingold, Wexler, Brown, Gore, Hagel, Dean, Richardson, Caroline Kennedy, Napolitano, McCaskill, Nunn, Zinni, Daschle, Mabus, Bill Nelson, Chet Edwards, Cleland, Bob Graham, Bingaman, Henry.
This new series will work just like the previous one, but I will not be keeping an average for eliminations; each day's lowest vote-getter(s) will disappear from the poll for the next thread. The candidates are alphabetical in the poll today; next time and going forward they'll be listed from top vote-getter in the previous poll to lowest finisher. The new field is as follows, totally based on rumors, lies, damn lies, goddamnable lies, and mostly my personal opinion at this moment in time:
Sen. Evan Bayh (IN)
Sen. Joe Biden (MBNA)
Sen. Jeff Bingaman (NM)
Sen. Sherrod Brown (OH)
Gen. (Ret.) Wesley Clark (AR)
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (NY)
Sen. Russ Feingold (WI)
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (TN)
Fmr. Sen. Bob Graham (FL)
Gov. Tim Kaine (VA)
Sen. Claire McCaskill (MO)
Fmr. Sen. Sam Nunn (GA)
Sen. Jack Reed (RI)
Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (KS)
Please cast your vote, speculate away, offer new names or general ideas about how Barack Obama should pick his running mate and who it should be. You could pick your favorite of the listed names and agitate for someone else below, or vote "Other" and agitate below. Again, "You're stupid for not including..." ain't nice.
Now on to today's poll....
Thanks,
Alex
Choose Our President 2008