I went to bed last night pretty much agreeing with Kristina40 about McCain not actually doing much to help himself at Saddleback. This morning, I was heartened to see this impression coming to Andrew Sullivan's readers, too.
Still, I'm worried that the media narrative is going to be a "media win for McCain," like Jessie Taylor articulates pretty clearly. I don't have a very high opinion of journalists, and I don't think they really know what folks are talking about most of the time. The look to the audience for a cue, see wild applause and lots of it, and give McCain a good news cycle. And I think the McCain camp really believes they need it. (Pat Buchanan actually said this was his best showing of the campaign on MSNBC last night, which I agree with.)
So, it is mid-August, and McCain's campaign strategy seems to be 1) shoring up the base and 2) fighting the image that the candidate is Frankenstein.
Obama's strategy seems to involve not-screwing-up, which has led so many of us to feel that his campaign has become bland and uninspired. But he is leading in the polls, has continued to lead in the polls despite any and all McCain camp antics, and appears pretty well set to win a landslide victory with the constituency he has already captured. There is little reason to risk the support he has to try to gain more. Obama is playing an incremental game, trench warfare almost.
McCain can't get out of second gear, and is starting to look like he will cross the finish line with 40%. McCain needs a massive game-changer, something like a renewed Cold War, to shift the dynamics and allow him to finally penetrate Obama's support.
I think the two relevant questions are, did the candidates lose any support, and did they gain any support?
Obama seems to keep mortgaging (in the Monopoly sense) the intensity of support of his hard-core supporters to reach across the aisle, as he did tonight by admitting a bigoted-though-tolerant view of marriage. But did he lose any support? I can't see how he would have, though you may be seeing some element I'm missing. Meanwhile, he has reached out to women (listening to his wife and mother seems like an cupid's arrow aimed straight at conservative women voters) and moderate Christians--many of whom might not be the type to have anything to do with Warren or the evangelical movement. And, as a thoughtful and humble Christian with increadible gravitas, I think he put another nail in the "is he ready to lead" question's coffin.
Meanwhile, McCain doubled-down on his extremist positions, drumming up support in the base. I think he will probably get a good cycle of positive media coverage out of this (I'm skipping the Sunday shows--what are you seeing there?). It may even create some excitement in the base, which so far has been sorely lacking. I think he alienated a lot of moderates, though--exactly the voters that the Republican party needs with its shrinking base of bigots and increasingly-disillusioned puritans.
Honestly, as an aside, I'm starting to wonder if McCain's campaign isn't intentionally driving his candidacy onto the rocks in order to drum up regional support to the point where they can make the best out of the congressional prospects, turning him into the finger-jabbing, "liberal liberal liberal"-shouting Bob Dole of 1996. I know losing 9 Senate seats is unlikely, but the Republicans' ability to maintain a filibuster is going to be key to their power over the next two (and probably at least four) years. Do you push all-in and try to win the White House with your longshot McCain, or do you play it safe? Either way, I get the feeling McCain will be a willing participant as long as they keep putting him in front of cheering, laughing crowds. Anyway, returning to my thesis...
My thoughts have come together around this to think the advantage goes overwhelmingly to Obama.
What do you think?