Folks, this is not a typical DailyKos diary. This is politics free. No, I'm not trying to stir up memories of Katrina and Brownie and yet another fine example of Republican mismanagement due to nepotism and using the system as an old boys network. No... I'm a meteorologist working as a forecaster responsible for tracking tropical cyclones. So, I wanted to share the latest info on the threat of Gustav with my fellow Kossacks.
I decided to post this out here today, because the model forecast guidance is beginning to converge, and with the holiday weekened upcoming I wanted to put this up today or tomorrow so that any interested parties can check this out before Friday.
The first thing to remember is that forecasting hurricanes can be tricky. So, I'm going to relay to you here the latest/best info. But, the fact is, things can change... and often do. So, you should always check various source for updates. The most obvious source, and the source for the most official updates is The National Hurricane Center. Anyway, here's the latest:
Currently, Gustav is having trouble getting away from Haiti. This satellite loop shows (as of this posting at around 9:00 EDT ...it is dynamically updated, so if you check later it may look somewhat different) a pretty ragged Gustav near the western edge of Haiti. In fact, Gustav is all the way down to a mere tropical storm right now.
However, at this time, the best estimate is that Gustav will become a major threat to the U.S., somewhere in the north-central Gulf Coast region (yes, New Orleans is a possible target ...but it is far too early to get that specific). This site is not really the best for looking at the raw model data, but it is one of the simplest. For example, the HWFI and GFDI plots are from the previous model run... these two models have been updated since. Both are now relatively similar to the GFDI plot... the latest GFDI run (called the GFDL) is a little to the west of that; the latest HWFI run (called the HWRF) is a little to the east. I specifically point out the HWRF and GFDL because they are the two hurricane-specific models and are the only two out-dated plots on that site. Let me also point out that the HWFI, GFDI and CHIPS are the only three dynamic, hurricane-specific models on the intensity graphic. That is important to note because the UKMI plot, for example, is one of the least likely to verify as it is based on a global, non-tropical, relatively low resolution model.
In short, the most superb models all predict Gustav to get up into the 100 to 140kt range (category 3 or 4). The timing of landfall appears to be around 120 hours. That's five days. That's early Monday morning. At the time of landfall the models seem to be depicting an intensity of 105 to 125kts (again, category 3 or 4). The GFDI may be lower, but it is tricky to decipher due to the precise landfall time; and I can tell you that the newer GFDL run is clear-cut borderline Category 3 or 4 at landfall. Finally, you can see by the multiple track plots, if extrapolated (for those that don't go all the way out to landfall ...though simple extrapolation can be dangerous/misleading/incorrect) that the range of solutions is between Galveston, TX and Appalachicola, FL. Another decent site for these models can be found here.
In summary, there remains considerable uncertainty. There is no imminent threat. However, anyone with concerns for the northern Gulf Coast should be paying very close attention to Gustav. The best information at this time is pointing towards a landfall from Gustav on Monday, along the north-central or northwestern Gulf Coast as a major hurricane. So, for those of you living in or vacationing in the northern Gulf Coast region, or for those of you with loved ones or other concerns in that area, please stay on top of this situation! And please monitor the links here... the National Hurricane Center link will give you the latest official forecast; the satellite link will allow you to see Gustav's current appearance and movement; and the model links will allow you to see what most of the latest computer guidance is projecting.
I am posting this from my worksite, so I may or may not be able to respond to questions. But if you have any regarding this storm, please ask away, and I'll do my best to answer.
UPDATE: 11AM EDT NHC update shifts storm east slightly, but also just slightly weaker... No landfall by day 5 (late Monday morning), but aims for landfall by Monday afternoon around Gulfport, MS as a minimal Category 3. That is the official NHC forecast (as of 11AM Wednesday). Of course, that'll likely shift around a bit... both track and intensity... but that is their projection. My own thinking is a bit stronger and a little further west.