Where the race for the presidency stands this morning, with two months left of campaigning, Sarah Palin is a good pick for McCain. Below the jump are my layperson thoughts:
Purely in terms of politics and increasing his # of votes, this is a great pick for the McCain campaign and Republicans.
In my estimation, McCain had/has a binary choice for this election:
- Lose (either barely, moderately, or in a landslide).
- Win by the skin of his teeth in the Elec. College.
The McCain campaign has been hovering in national polls for the last month at about 42-45 (with blips up to 47). The last 2 weeks, Obama has hovered in the same range.
In terms of the Elec. College and recent polling, it was essentially tied with a slight Obama lead. The 3 key states in this election in terms of polling (in my estimation) are CO, VA, and OH. Behind them are NV, NH, MI, NC and perhaps MN, ND, and MT. (wow, that's a lot 'N' and 'M' loving).
I want us to focus on COVAOH for a minute:
These states are going to be close. They are close now and will be on election day. If McCain wins all three, he wins the election as the other aforementioned states will shake out accordingly based on the outcome of these three states.
McCain needs to get new votes. He's already consolidated the GOP vote. He's not going to find new votes with African Americans, Hispanics, or any other minorities. He has a modest lead among all men, but historically lower than GWB had or GOP candidates in general. My gut tells me, he wasn't going to improve his vote spread with that demographic.
Since the DNC Conv. had just concluded, DEM vote consolidation was/is coming.
He had to improve his numbers with women voters that are independent or soft GOP (the least likely to not partially crossover and support Obama). He had to get new votes somewhere and I think this demographic was the only place he could get it. It doesn't even need to be a substantial change in vote allocation....he needs a point or three increase in this demographic in COVAOH, and he wins.
I'm not saying he gets this bump automatically; he doesn't, but it's his only chance at winning.
I'm just glad Obama has been building a superb ground game and he and his campaign are wicked smart and efficient.
UPDATE: I changed the title to reflect it was the best way for McCain to have a shot at winning.