I don't often post; I only do so when I have something of substance to say. Hopefully I'm not too late to the game with this one.
Let's face it: we're an optimistic bunch. I can't recall how many times we declared victory during '04 (both during the primaries & the general), or even this year (HRC has it locked! Obama has it in the bag!). We hang the mission accomplished banner up on a given candidate faster than GWB slaps it up on an aircraft carrier. Much like the villagers did to the boy who cried wolf a few too many times, I've tried to stop listening to those who prematurely declare victory each time McCain continues to spout Bush's lines or Obama delivers one his incredible speeches. That said, I don't think our self-congratulatory tone has ever sounded so shrill as with the selection of Palin as McCain's VP. Underestimating our opponents--something we Democrats are downright professional at--could easily spell disaster. In the interesting of doing my part to help prevent that from happening, please indulge this excessively wordy schmuck in what I hope is a hard, honest and reflective look at our new opponent.
I. First let us take a look at how the selection of Palin might help McCain:
- Palin IS a revolutionary candidate for the GOP. Yes, she toes the party line across the board (please see II.4 for a rare exception), but when has the GOP honestly considered a female VP previously, especially one with the appearance of being a political outsider? Remember, we are fighting the APPEARANCE of "maverickism," not actual; this goes quite a long way to reinforce that appearance.
- Palin very adequately answers calls by the GOP base for a conservative ticket. She's pro-drill, anti-women's rights, pro-gun, etc. She nullifies the appearance of centrist values that the other Republican candidates attached to McCain during the primaries and could help energize various members of his base.
- Palin has a very strong possibility of appealing to female conservatives, especially those who are working mothers. She does not have "just" one or two children (and please note the sarcasm there; I'm just using a possible talking point). This will play well to the base and to centrists who lean a bit to the right.
- Biden's "Everyday Joe" image (a huge asset) is canceled out substantially by Palin's oft-photographed hunting, fishing, mothering and blue collaring images. That's going to play very well to a big chunk of the electorate. That sea of red we keep seeing in the middle of the country eats that stuff up.
- Gimmick candidate though she may be, McCain's camp just hijacked the news cycle that was firmly fixed on our team up until today. Give credit where credit is due (if Buchanan can, so can we); that alone was a pretty masterful stroke following our basically flawless convention. The discussion that will follow debating her merits and flaws will ensure they stay the top story for at least a few days.
II. Next, let's explore some possible negatives for the McCain camp that won't necessarily translate into positives for us:
- Experience is off the table (others have said this and more eloquently, so let me leave it at that), but that's a two-way street. I don't think this was all that strong of an argument before, however, so I doubt this will be much of a game changer.
- Ethics inquiries are off the table, at least in respect to Obama & Rezko and Palin's. Looking at the stories on Palin's inquiry (such as this one) really make it look like a non-issue. The appearance is what matters; Obama appears without fault (though it's evident that he is without fault) and it looks like Palin is headed in the same direction. McCain will have to change some talking points here. That said, Ayers is likely to remain--stupidly--an issue.
3a) Neither side will likely talk about this but the dark, nasty truth is that extremely conservative ideology and misogyny often go hand-in-hand. Check out this interesting poll for some insight into the "is the US ready for a female President" question. That said, less 10% caveman voters who want their womens in the kitchen and plus 10% conservative leaning, anti-choice women also comes out in a wash. A possible positive for us--and please understand this is completely my opinion and nothing more--is that those cavemen are possibly some of the staunchest, scariest conservatives in the US; if they stay home, we could see a boost in Senatorial, Congressional and local races.
3b) The wives of said cavemen might follow along with their husbands, thereby softening the possible conservative female upswing.
- Palin vetoed a state bill banning equal benefits to homosexual couples. She did so reluctantly, yes, but this won't likely play well to the far right folks. That said, the same people who have an issue with a female being President likely overlap substantially with this group.
III. Now let us examine a few potential positives for Team Obama:
- Whether or not the experience argument is worth a flip, Obama has been on the national stage for over four years. Palin's stage, while no small exhibit hall (and we really should watch for posts that minimize that great, albeit red, state), isn't the large stage that Chicago represents. I wager she'll be groomed and handled with all the resources the other team has to offer, but that only goes so far. HRC tested the hell out of our candidate (even if many didn't like her tactics); Palin is very, very green.
- Biden's down-home image will allow him to debate Palin without charges of bullying. Palin's own folksy image is actually her undoing in this respect. If we had ANYONE other than Biden or HRC as our VP, I think we would be in serious trouble right now.
- Some firm, conservative Republicans will see through this ruse and see her for the gimmick candidate that she almost certainly is. I don't think the types of folks I'm talking about here will be defecting to our side anytime soon, but I do wager they'll donate and volunteer less if not just stay home.
- She derided the VP post and stated clearly that she has no idea what they do. While we're basically unable to, and really shouldn't, attack her on the experience issue (the press and GOP would have a hay day with that, regardless how false the analogy), we can absolutely go to town on her for this. The video linked above should be in a campaign ad the second this honeymoon starts to die down.
- Our candidate really does kick ass. That's a huge positive, no matter who McCain's VP nominee is.
IV. Some other thoughts and concerns. And yes, I'm concerned. I watched the 2000 election get snatched from us, saw Dean get lambasted and sidelined for being excited and experienced Kerry's incredible debate performances as he beat the snot out of GW amount to nothing but broken dreams and unfulfilled hopes. We were a couple points up going into the convention and quite a few up coming out of it, but with almost two months to go that means absolutely nothing. So call me a concern troll if you must, but here are some additional considerations:
- I am PETRIFIED of the appearance of sexism. Republicans can and do get away with it constantly; we can't. This isn't because women will defect en mass, but rather because it will give the GOP and any other critic absolute control of media cycles. It is imperative that we KILL any criticism like this or this. Obama supports, please think through your comments carefully and don't give these whackjobs any ammunition. Let them keep shooting the blanks they've stockpiled through years of anti-women viewpoints and perspectives.
- No matter the results of this election, Palin will almost certainly be someone we see again in the future. She has a 76 to 80% approval rating back home and will almost certainly sharpen her skills with this campaign. If she doesn't fall flat on her face (basically, so long as she doesn't make a fool of herself and her party), she will likely be a formidable foe in the future and will then have name recognition on her side. Please keep this in mind while we watch her in this election.
- This isn't a concern so much as what I think is an interesting observation. McCain had other women he could have selected, but he went with the anti-choice one. McCain isn't targeting female voters really; Palin, I contend, instead represents a very wide (if insubstantial) net that he's casting into the electoral waters. He knows he's not getting all the fish on the right or center, but he also knows that he's going to get a diverse (well, for him) and possibly sizable mix. Interesting strategy, really.
- Palin is a creationist. Don't think for one damned minute that's really going to help us much, though. Of course we should take her to task for it, but we must do so with extreme caution because we could easily destroy the alliance we've created with some of the more religious-oriented pick-ups we've had recently. THIS, not houses or income or education, is part of that asinine elitist perception floating around about the Democrats. We could easily come off as smug if we're not careful here, and I'm saying this as a militant agnostic.
Update II: josecheung sent a fantastic link (which was obtained from another blog) that suggests Palin is a bit wiggly on this issue. Given that this is the case, we can hit her on this issue if it happens to come up and not worry much about offending any particularly religious individuals who sympathize (even if they don't believe) the creationist perspective. Actually, the poster's entire analysis was pretty fantastic and did more in less words than I did here.
As a recent transplant to Athens, OH by way of Chicago, IL, my wife and I are volunteering for Obama and Biden's speech in Dublin, OH tomorrow. I hope to have some good photos and something interesting to say about the experience afterwards and I also intend to finally start working the phones once things settle down here a bit in the next week.
In conclusion, don't dismiss, don't underestimate, don't stick your foot in your mouth and for god's sake don't stop volunteering and donating. Thanks for hearing me out.
Update I: Not to pimp another person's diary, but this should be required reading. Know thine enemy!