Social Security Administration maintains statistics on life expectancy and death probabilities. John McCain, who turned 72 today, has a 3.3% chance of dying before his 73rd birthday, 0.6% chance of dying before the elections and a 1.3% chance of dying before the inauguration.
McCain will be just over 76 on Election Day, 2012. He has a 15% chance of dying before then. He will be 80 for the 2016 elections – and a 32% chance of not making it.
If McCain gets elected in November, and maintains his incumbency 4 years from now, chances are 1 in 3 that we will see Ms. Palin as President.
The other group whose age and health is closely observed is the "liberal" judges of the Supreme Court. They did their best to outlast Bush, but they will not be there forever.
The chances of the oldest sitting saner justices surviving another 4 years:
Stevens: 47%
Ginzburg: 81%
Breyer: 88%
Kennedy: 86%
Now back to electing our young and vigorous candidate. Don’t worry too much if you see McCain leading in the polls by a point – actuarial tables might take care of it.