This just in from the folks at Gallup: Barack Obama maintains a lead of six points over John McCain. In the tracking poll released this morning, Obama sheds only a single point (down to 48%), while McCain gains only a single point (up to 42%).
These new numbers from Gallup are not only in line with what Nate over at Five Thirty Eight thought would happen, it might even be a little bit better, when you consider the dynamics of the race over the last week.
Here's why: Wednesday night's tracking is the night that dropped out of the surveys today. Both Rasmussen and Gallup showed huge movement on that day: Rasmussen showed Obama picking up three, while Gallup showed Obama gaining five points.
Today, I honestly expected Obama to shed quite a few points. So, losing one in the Ras tracking, and two in the Gallup is not bad.
Plus, as Gallup notes:
"Though down slightly from the eight-point lead Obama held mid-convention, this represents a clear improvement for the Democratic candidate's positioning in the campaign compared to a week ago when the race was about tied."
John McCain did one thing right this week--the timing of his Palin announcement stepped on Obama's news coverage after his landmark address at Mile High Stadium. But that announcement is not bringing the race back to even. You now have two days post-Palin, and Obama still has a healthy lead.
Also, Andrew Sullivan digs into that Rasmussen ("They like her more than Biden!! OMG!!!") poll from yesterday.
Here are the money stats: among those UNDECIDED on who they will vote for in November, 6% said the Palin selection makes them more likely to vote McCain. 31% said that they were less likely to vote for him as a result.
Those same undecided voters said, by a margin of 35% to 20%, that Joe Biden is ready to be president. Governor Palin?? Not so much...6% say she is ready to be the president...59% say nope.