After endless Sarah Palin diaries, I'll try not to discuss her too much (laughs). I thought, however, that I would divert our attention to a more fruitful discussion of the swing state of Michigan. I am a proud Michigander and a proud liberal Democrat and I’ll be damned if the Rethugs and John McSame take this state.
When Michigan first joined the Union back in January of 1837 the state voted primarily for Republicans. Since the 1930s through the 1960s, however, the state would periodically flirt between the two parties. From 1972 through 1988 the state voted exclusively Republican before becoming the Democratic-leaning state that it is today.
In 2004, John Kerry defeated George W. Bush by a slender 51% to 48% margin (a little too close for comfort for me). Given the close result and its past history, Michigan could very well be in play if the right Republican ticket came along (if there ever was such a thing). After passing over Mitt Romney, McSame may have made his chances harder taking this state. Now, I can’t stand Romney, but with his Michigan background he very well could have put this state in play. But thankfully McSame chose a hockey mom from Alaska with little to no experience. An Alaskan economy is FAR different than a Michigan one. What a dumb move when the economy here is the number one issue.
If you haven’t been living under a rock you are probably aware of how grim things are looking for Michigan economically. The state has experienced significant economic turmoil since the 1970s and has seen slow population growth relative to the rest of the country. This has resulted in a loss of electoral votes, from 21 in the 1970s to 17 today. Pending the result of the 2010 census, the state may see one more of those votes disappear for the 2012 election.
Few issues are more important than the strength and health of our economy when recession fears are high. The fiscal, budget, tax and economic policies that Bush has pursued have directly impacted every person, family and business in America. Since January 2001, millions of manufacturing jobs have been lost, household incomes have failed to keep up with the rise of inflation, millions more Americans live in poverty, huge budget surpluses have turned into huge deficits, and trillions of dollars in tax cuts have gone to the wealthiest among us. At the same time, sophisticated individuals and companies are using unfair tax loopholes, tax shelters and offshore tax havens to avoid paying their fair share.
These vital issues – the decline in wages, the sluggish state of the economy, the deficit and widespread tax evasion, and loss of manufacturing jobs have killed the Michigan economy. Michigan has an 8.5% unemployment rate (the highest in the country). Michigan’s economy is in dire straits. With the economy the number one issue in this election, especially for Michigan, you would think the GOP would take this more seriously. Barack Obama has visited Michigan numerous times talking about the economy. He was in Battle Creek today, and will be in Detroit tomorrow.
So, how will Palin help with Michigan? She can’t. But here is what some Michigan GOPers think:
Of course, for Michigan's sake, many would have loved to see our favorite son [Mitt Romney] be on the ticket, but there is a lot to get excited about with Sarah Palin. This helps with the voters that propelled Granholm to victory in Michigan: suburban voters — especially women in places like Oakland County and West Michigan. It will excite the base who feel so strongly about a pro-life conservative candidate. She will appeal strongly to our voters all across Michigan who believe in the right to bear arms — and can speak the same language of the hundreds of thousands of Michigan voters who spend their fall hunting deer in northern Michigan. Don't forget snowmobiling!
And her reputation as a reformer with no tolerance for government officials who abuse power and don't serve citizens will have great resonance in Michigan that have been dragged through the Kilpatrick scandals for the last year and has watched Granholm bring Michigan progress to a screeching halt. A Gov. Palin would have acted ... led.
Palin sends a strong signal to Washington, that change is on its way. She has a record on reform that is second to none and nicely compliments one of McCain's central themes of changing the culture in Washington.
Yup. Not ONE thing mentioned about the economy. You have got to be kidding yourself if you think Michiganders are going to vote for McSame because his V.P. likes to snowmobile. Sure there are voters who like the fact that she is a hunter, but I feel that those voters were already in McSame’s camp or that the economy would be WAY more important to these voters.
So what's the GOP's plan for winning Michigan? FEAR and SMEAR. Which leads me to people like Nolan Finley of the Detroit News who have this to say to his fellow rethugs:
So if not with love or hate, how will Republicans fire up voters? With fear.
They've got to scare voters to death about what will happen to the nation if Obama is elected. They must paint him as a threat to everything they cherish, from free trade to family values. They must tap into fears that Obama doesn't have the will or the knowhow to keep the nation safe and secure from threats from within and without.
But if they have any hope of closing the emotion gap, Republicans have to scare voters enough to keep them awake on election eve and send them running to the polls in terror the next morning.
In a poll conducted around August 25th, it would appear these sorts of tactics are not going to work. Now this is BEFORE the Palin pick so take from it what you will:
DETROIT - A new poll shows Democrat Barack Obama apparently leading Republican John McCain in Michigan. The poll conducted by the Detroit Free Press and WDIV-TV shows Obama with 46 percent, McCain with 39 percent, 12 percent undecided and 3 percent backing other candidates. But 31 percent of those polled say they could be persuaded to change their minds by Election Day.
Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, Iowa, conducted the telephone poll of 600 likely voters Sunday through Wednesday. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
I sincerely doubt with the pick of Palin that these 31% of leaners would suddenly change sides. If they do, it’ll be a wash with the amount she’ll lose.