The ground game has many components: volunteers, interns, paid staff and, of course, offices. I wondered how the campaigns compare in one simple metric -- the number of official field operations in each state. I think the answer tells us a few things. First, it indicates the depth of a candidate's resources. Second, it tells us where the campaigns aren't planning to waste resources; that is, where they are confident of the outcome, either pro or con. Last, it indicates states where each campaign thinks there's a chance of winning either a close contest or forcing their opponent to defend what should be a safe state.
Here's the numbers:
You can find the information at these locations:
McCain
Obama
First, a side note. I encourage you to check your state to see the difference. Then check Obama's state sites for Illinois and Pennsylvania. How cool is it that Illinois residents are tapped to travel to other states, and PA residents are tapped to host a volunteer? Smart stuff.
McCain has a grand total of 232 field offices in all configurations; Obama has 511, with 15 more slated to open soon in North Carolina and Ohio, excluding Missouri because the web page is not working. I think we give the edge on ground game potential to Obama.
Next, let's look at the states that both campaigns think are not contestable. These are the 27 states where each campaign has either none or one office:
Alabama
Arizona
Arkansas
Connecticut
Delaware
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maryland
Massachusetts
Mississippi
Nebraska
New Jersey
New York
Oklahoma
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
West Virginia
Wyoming
That leaves the presumably competitive ones. Twenty three states. Here are the states where McCain has significant office presence, and Obama doesn't:
California (55 to 0)
Here's the reverse:
Alaska (7 to 0)
Georgia (39 to 0)
Indiana (27 to 1)
Maine (13 to 3)
Michigan (32 to 1)
Montana (13 to 0)
North Dakota (9 to 0)
And finally, the states where both are fighting, according to their lights:
Colorado (12 Obama, 10 McCain)
Florida (56 McCain, 42 Obama)
Iowa (33 Obama, 7 McCain)
Minnesota (11 Obama, 8 McCain)
Nevada (11 Obama, 9 McCain, 7 of which are GOP offices)
New Hampshire (16 Obama, 5 McCain)
New Mexico (29 Obama, 5 McCain)
North Carolina (19 Obama, 9 McCain)
Ohio (57 Obama, 10 McCain)
Oregon (9 Obama, 5 McCain)
Pennsylvania (57 Obama, 17 McCain)
Virginia (36 Obama, 6 McCain)
Washington (18 Obama, 6 McCain)
Wisconsin (35 Obama, 6 McCain)
Missouri probably falls in this category as well.
McCain cannot seriously think he's going to contest California. I suspect those 55 offices are simply in business to collect RNC money -- since they can no longer collect for McCain. Obama, OTOH, appears to be taking the game to McCain in lots of places. Of the fifteen states
Nate Silver ranks as tops in return on investment, Obama has significant ground game in eleven of them, excluding only Delaware (#10 and safe), South Dakota and West Virginia and Oregon (#s 12 and 13 respectively). The only state where McCain's direct field operation appears stronger is Florida.
What does all of this mean? Field offices aren't everything to a campaign, of course; but they do provide direction on the ground for volunteer efforts, particularly registration, early voting and GOTV on Election Day. I can't speak to the potential for other states, but I will speak to my own. New Hampshire is a battleground state this fall. Here's how the two campaigns stack up in field operations here.
Obama has sixteen offices: one each near the college towns of Plymouth, Hanover and Keene; two in the North Country, which is in flux politically; four on the Seacoast; and seven scattered in the populations centers in the middle of the state. McCain's five include one near Dartmouth College, one on the Seacoast, one in Nashua, one in Manchester, and one to open soon in the relatively Republican stronghold of Laconia. I've got to tell you, McCain's operation looks pretty underwhelming in a state with nearly even registration, a large contingent of independents and the number one spot on Nate's ROI list.
Obama's ground looks pretty solid to me, and if the ground is where the election is won, he WILL do it.