So, I'm pretty new to this political junkie stuff, but am I the only one that thinks it's largely good news that a big, very public poll has Obama down 10% this morning?
Seriously. Imagine that the polls had Obama up 10 points this morning instead...
- Volunteers might get a little complacent.
INSTEAD, we're down 10. New volunteers like me are feeling the desperate need to get involved. I keep seeing the old hand field organizers saying, "work like we're down 10". Why? Because it motivates extraordinary effort.
- Supporters would get the warm, happy, "we're gonna win" glow.
INSTEAD, we're down 10. Even this weekend, knocking on doors, I heard lots of people say, "I thought it was an easy win this fall. Now I'm worried." Worried people vote. Worried people help. Worried people stay focused on the importance of working until polls close on Nov. 4.
- People would feel good that Obama has what he needs to close the deal.
INSTEAD, we're down 10. That reminds us all how much Obama still needs our money, our time, our voices.
- The media would try to keep it looking like a close race.
INSTEAD, we're down 10. To my newbie eyes, it sure seems like the media goes after the ones who are ahead. Maybe being up in the polls will drive a little more media scrutiny the direction of McCain/Palin. (Yo, Charlie - she might WIN, ask decent questions!!!).
- Our guys would get slapped down for "picking on" Palin.
INSTEAD, we're down 10. Underdogs are supposed to fight back. Barack and Joe have some tough, issues focused things to say lately, and I think being down will get them more play, and more pundit support.
- Voters might seriously consider the "OMG, what if they win" question.
INSTEAD, we're down 10. I think that swing voters need to contemplate the reality of what a McCain/Palin win would really mean for this country. What did they call it in the primaries - "buyers remorse"? Hopefully a lead in the polls will give some of those swing voters pause (the "do I REALLY want that little experience a heartbeat away from the presidency, do I REALLY want to vote on my hot button issue at the expense of decent healthcare, do I REALLY want my children going off to war" kinds of questions).
- McCain/Palin would get strength for their "outsiders" argument.
INSTEAD, we're down 10. People like underdogs, outsiders, people who aren't "supposed to win". I think that's why we've been hearing the ridiculous "Obama is really the incumbent and we're going to change Washington" line from the McPalin campaign lately. Being behind gives Obama back his "unlikely story" meme.
- Students might get back to life as usual.
INSTEAD, we're down 10. We need all those students getting back to school to hear the contagious "urgency of now". This is a key Obama voter and volunteer base that has a lot of competing priorities at this time of year - and let's face it, fighting for the guy who is obviously going to win just isn't as motivating. It's been a long, long season for us newbies (students and we older folks!), and I think a sharp reminder to focus and get back in the game is very timely right now.
I get that the poll with us down 10% is convention bounce (and maybe some methodology issues). I get that national numbers don't matter and there is every reason to be hopeful from an electoral votes perspective (yes, I'm a Nate Silver junkie).
But I, for one, hope the "convention bounce" sticks around a while. I'm guessing our guys do a lot better fighting from behind.
Anyone else have thoughts on why sucky polls are a good thing?
UPDATE: Wow, this diary has attracted some unhappy, scared, pissed off people this morning! Nobody thinks this is good??? Here's a couple more thoughts...
- The media would take any polls after this as "they're losing their lead".
INSTEAD, we're down 10. The USA Today/Gallup poll is probably an outlier to begin with, but any other polls this week should show an Obama "comeback" for the media to talk about.
- The right wing GOTV would get a serious injection of focus.
INSTEAD, we're down 10. Palin supporters can look at the numbers and be happy that their girl will get it done with good speeches. The longer it takes the GOTV operation on the other side to click into full gear, the better.
OK, now I'm off to knock on doors!