There is a fair bit of anxiety and frustration these days, worrying about whether Obama may lose this thing. In a year when 80% of the country thinks we are on the wrong track, this should be a landslide year for Democrats. Or should it, considering our candidate.
I started thinking about how tight this race is and gave some consideration to the raw numbers.
We can all see that this race, particularly in light of McCain's post-convention bounce is perilously close. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
Obama will most likely regain his 2-3 point national lead which he's had for months once the bounce subsides, but I started to wonder, why the stalling? Why can't he seem to get above that 2-3%?
My submission is simple- http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...
11% of people admit they WILL NOT vote for a black guy, which means the actual number is probably higher than that.
Let's call it 15% just for shits and giggles. Now, between a black and a non-black, it's obvious who this 15% will vote for. Imagine if Obama could peel just THREE OF THIS FIFTEEN PERCENT of these people off McCain to his side. This creates a six point swing and bumps Obama up to or at a 10% lead from here on out.
I write this diary only as a reminder of the (almost overlooked from day-to-day) disadvantage that Obama faces. If he can pull this off, it will be in the face of odds that no previous president (maybe besides JFK) has ever faced.