I've been trying to wrap my head around where this election is going ever since McCain announced Palin as his running mate. She terrifies me, and at the outset, I thought she could be really damaging to McCain. I still think there's a chance of that, but I now (post-RNC) think that there's also a chance that she'll be an asset.
Basically, it seems to me that before the Palin pick, this election was shaping up to be something quite different. both candidates were running as people "outside the system" who wanted to move beyond the party politics of the past. It was always questionable how much either candidate was actually committed to a post-partisan agenda (particularly in McCain's case), but this was the message that both were pushing.
Now that Palin is on the ticket, I feel that McCain has cast aside the "post-partisan reformer" strategy and is now betting the farm on what worked for Rove in 2004- pump up the base, demonize the opposition, and make the whole thing so nasty that independents and anyone but political die-hards are too disgusted to vote. McCain's lackeys might go on TV and talk about both candidates' supposed reform credentials, but let's be honest here-- the republican base (which is majority batshit crazy) don't give two shits about whether they're reformers or not. These are the people who still support Bush, or at least the party in general. The real reason she was selected might honestly have been that McCain is just totally unpredictable and does things off the cuff, but even if McCain is a reckless gambler, his handlers are not. They are making lemonade out of his lemon of a VP pick, and so far, we're letting them do it. If Obama wants to take back the narrative from the repubs, he must not get bogged down by Palin (and questions about her experience, values, etc.) because this focuses things on her personally and she appeals to lots of low information voters on a personal level. Instead, it's time to make this into a campaign of all-out partisan warfare.
Yes, Obama went a long way in the primary campaign with his post-partisan messaging. This, however, was in a democratic primary, so everyone knew that all the candidates would represent dramatic changes if they were the nominee. I supported Obama early, because I felt like he was the most charismatic choice who had the best chance of expanding our base and putting an attractive new face on progressive values. I think that's a large part of why he ended up getting the nomination.
Now, however, Obama does not need to continue being a post-partisan to widen the base. He is not competing anymore with candidates whose policies are similar to his, and the main difference between him and McCain is not personal. It's partisan. Obama needs to make a full-tilt effort in defining McCain-Palin as tied to the Republican party that got the country into this mess. A fight about "values" or "vision" is not going to win Obama points in the GE the way it did in the primary. He needs to fully embrace the Clinton years, and modify the famous "were you better off than you were four years ago" question by also adding on, "but remember how much better it was last time democrats were in the WH?"
I honestly feel that the Obama campaign is in dangerous territory now. The Republicans are on the verge of pulling this election onto the turf where they do best-- a nasty personal fight where they paint the opposition as out-of-touch elitists. This is not about policy. It's about character. On these grounds, like it or not and it pains me to say it, they will always win in a national election! We have to take the narrative back, and the fail-proof way of doing it is by talking about the Clinton years. There is no way that any thinking person can argue that we're doing better now than we were then. This will force McCain to either bash Clinton (which will make him look out of touch) or agree that the last time the country was prosperous and at peace, a Democrat held power.
Does this make sense? This is the only way that I've figured out that Obama can take back the reigns in this election.