Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/8-10. Likely voters. MoE 4% (7/21-23 results)
Wicker (R) 48 (45)
Musgrove (D) 43 (44)
Wicker has the current advantage. This one is still tight, however, and well within striking range. The only other pollster polling this race, Rasmussen, last polled it August 21, and had Wicker with a 52-43 lead.
On the presidential front, Obama's single-digit deficit in July has given way to a big McCain post-conventions lead this time around:
McCain (R) 52 (51)
Obama (D) 39 (42)
Only 14 percent of white Mississippi voters currently support Obama. That number was 19 percent in the previous poll. If Obama could break the 20 percent mark, he would have an outside chance of picking off this state. Right now, that's not looking very possible.
Full crosstabs below the fold.
Update: I'd listed the McCain/Obama numbers incorrectly. They've been fixed.
MISSISSIPPI POLL RESULTS - SEPTEMBER 2008
The Research 2000 Mississippi Poll was conducted from September 8 through September 10, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the ?true? figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
Sample Figures:
Men 287 49%
Women 313 51%
Dem 241 40%
Rep 270 45%
Ind 89 15%
White 378 63%
Black 222 37%
18-29 107 18%
30-44 184 31%
45-59 194 32%
60+ 115 19%
Delta/Jack 224 37%
NE 161 27%
SE 215 36%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ronnie Musgrove? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not)?
Very Very No
Fav Fav Unfav Unfav Opinion
All 17% 33% 30% 13% 7%
Men 15% 30% 33% 16% 6%
Women 19% 36% 27% 10% 8%
Dem 28% 46% 14% 6% 6%
Rep 7% 22% 46% 20% 5%
Ind 18% 34% 27% 12% 9%
18-29 20% 37% 26% 10% 7%
30-44 17% 33% 29% 13% 8%
45-59 16% 32% 31% 14% 7%
60+ 15% 30% 33% 16% 6%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Roger Wicker? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not)?
Very Very No
Fav Fav Unfav Unfav Opinion
All 18% 36% 28% 13% 5%
Men 21% 40% 24% 11% 4%
Women 15% 32% 32% 15% 6%
Dem 8% 21% 41% 21% 9%
Rep 26% 51% 16% 5% 2%
Ind 17% 34% 30% 13% 6%
18-29 14% 31% 34% 17% 4%
30-44 17% 35% 29% 15% 4%
45-59 20% 38% 25% 11% 6%
60+ 21% 40% 25% 5% 11%
QUESTION: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Ronnie Musgrove or Roger Wicker?
Wicker Musgrove Undecided
All 48% 43% 9%
Men 52% 40% 8%
Women 44% 46% 10%
Dem 7% 84% 9%
Rep 86% 6% 8%
Ind 46% 45% 9%
White 73% 23% 4%
Black 7% 75% 18%
18-29 42% 49% 9%
30-44 49% 44% 7%
45-59 51% 41% 8%
60+ 50% 39% 11%
Delta/Jack 42% 50% 8%
NE 52% 37% 11%
SE 52% 40% 8%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today, would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Republican ticket of? John McCain and Sarah Palin, or another candidate?
McCain Obama Other Undecided
All 52% 39% 3% 6%
Men 55% 37% 4% 4%
Women 49% 41% 2% 8%
Dem 12% 79% 2% 7%
Rep 89% 4% 3% 4%
Ind 50% 39% 4% 7%
White 81% 14% 3% 2%
Black 5% 80% 2% 13%
18-29 47% 44% 2% 7%
30-44 54% 38% 4% 4%
45-59 53% 39% 4% 4%
60+ 55% 35% 2% 8%
Delta/Jack 45% 48% 1% 6%
NE 57% 34% 5% 4%
SE 56% 34% 3% 7%