Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/15-17. Likely voters. MoE 4% (7/14-16 results)
Senate
Stevens (R) 44 (45)
Begich (D) 50 (47)
This remains one of our top pickup opportunities. While Begich runs through the state picking up support, Stevens will be in court in Washington DC generating the wrong kind of headlines back home.
The House race looks even better.
At-Large House District
Young (R) 39 (40)
Berkowitz (D) 53 (51)
Parnell (R) 43
Berkowitz (D) 48
The CW was that Parnell would cruise to victory had he pulled off his primary, but this poll suggests that it would've still been an uphill climb for the GOP to retain this seat. As is, this is one of the top pickup candidates for Democrats this cycle. And since Parnell would be Berkowitz likely opponent in 2010, this suggests that the matchup wouldn't be as lopsided as once thought.
As for the presidential, if nothing else, Palin has locked down her state's three electoral votes, with McCain leading 55-38. The last time we polled this state, it was 51-41 McCain. So the Palin effect? None down-ballot, and about seven points at the presidential level. Not too impressive.
Full crosstabs are below the fold.
Update: To be clear, since I wasn't before, Parnell lost his primary challenge to Young. The CW was that had Parnell won, Berkowitz would be toast. This poll states otherwise. This is all relevant because Parnell will be back in 2010 trying to take out freshman incumbent Rep. Ethan Berkowitz.
ALASKA POLL RESULTS - SEPTEMBER 2008
The Research 2000 Alaska Poll was conducted from September 15 through September
17, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 292 (49%)
Women 308 (51%)
Democrats 126 (21%)
Republicans 185 (31%)
Independents/Other 289 (48%)
18-29 107 (18%)
30-44 211 (35%)
45-59 191 (32%)
60+ 91 (15%)
Anchorage 288 (48%)
Central/Other 95 (16%)
Fairbanks/Juneau 217 (36%)
U.S CONGRESS:
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ethan Berkowitz? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 22% 34% 18% 16% 10%
MEN 20% 32% 21% 18% 9%
WOMEN 24% 36% 15% 14% 11%
DEMOCRATS 38% 41% 7% 6% 8%
REPUBLICANS 5% 25% 29% 25% 16%
INDEPENDENTS 26% 37% 16% 14% 7%
18-29 27% 39% 11% 10% 13%
30-44 19% 33% 22% 18% 8%
45-59 24% 35% 15% 15% 11%
60+ 18% 29% 23% 22% 8%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Don Young? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 10% 31% 36% 22% 1%
MEN 12% 36% 32% 19% 1%
WOMEN 8% 26% 40% 25% 1%
DEMOCRATS 3% 6% 55% 35% 1%
REPUBLICANS 18% 52% 20% 9% 1%
INDEPENDENTS 8% 29% 37% 25% 1%
18-29 5% 23% 43% 27% 2%
30-44 12% 34% 34% 19% 1%
45-59 10% 29% 37% 23% 1%
60+ 13% 33% 33% 20% 1%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sean Parnell? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 12% 39% 19% 13% 17%
MEN 14% 41% 18% 12% 15%
WOMEN 10% 37% 20% 14% 19%
DEMOCRATS 5% 14% 38% 25% 18%
REPUBLICANS 19% 58% 9% 6% 8%
INDEPENDENTS 11% 38% 17% 12% 22%
18-29 5% 36% 22% 16% 21%
30-44 14% 42% 17% 12% 15%
45-59 11% 39% 19% 13% 18%
60+ 16% 41% 18% 10% 15%
QUESTION: If the 2008 election for Congress were held today for whom would you votefor if the choices were between Ethan Berkowitz the Democrat and Don Young
the Republican?
BERKOWITZ YOUNG UNDECIDED
ALL 53% 39% 8%
MEN 48% 45% 7%
WOMEN 58% 33% 9%
DEMOCRATS 87% 6% 7%
REPUBLICANS 19% 75% 6%
INDEPENDENTS 60% 31% 9%
18-29 56% 34% 10%
30-44 51% 43% 6%
45-59 55% 36% 9%
60+ 49% 44% 7%
ANCHORAGE 55% 40% 5%
CENTRAL/OTHER 45% 42% 13%
FAIRBANKS/JUNEAU 54% 36% 10%
QUESTION: If the 2008 election for Congress were held today for whom would you votefor if the choices were between Ethan Berkowitz the Democrat and Sean Parnell the Republican?
BERKOWITZ PARNELL UNDECIDED
ALL 48% 43% 9%
MEN 42% 49% 9%
WOMEN 54% 37% 9%
DEMOCRATS 86% 5% 9%
REPUBLICANS 15% 79% 6%
INDEPENDENTS 53% 36% 11%
18-29 52% 38% 10%
30-44 46% 45% 9%
45-59 47% 44% 9%
60+ 44% 48% 8%
ANCHORAGE 48% 43% 9%
CENTRAL/OTHER 43% 48% 9%
FAIRBANKS/JUNEAU 50% 42% 8%
U.S. SENATE:
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mark Begich? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 22% 34% 19% 13% 12%
MEN 19% 31% 22% 15% 13%
WOMEN 25% 37% 16% 11% 11%
DEMOCRATS 38% 48% 8% 4% 2%
REPUBLICANS 8% 21% 31% 23% 17%
INDEPENDENTS 24% 36% 16% 11% 13%
18-29 28% 38% 16% 8% 10%
30-44 20% 33% 21% 15% 11%
45-59 24% 35% 18% 10% 13%
60+ 17% 30% 22% 20% 11%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ted Stevens? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 10% 30% 34% 22% 4%
MEN 13% 34% 30% 20% 3%
WOMEN 7% 26% 38% 24% 5%
DEMOCRATS 4% 14% 51% 31% -
REPUBLICANS 17% 45% 18% 13% 7%
INDEPENDENTS 8% 28% 37% 24% 3%
18-29 6% 23% 41% 27% 3%
30-44 12% 33% 32% 18% 5%
45-59 8% 27% 35% 26% 4%
60+ 13% 36% 30% 17% 4%
QUESTION: If the 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Mark Begich the Democrat and Ted Stevens the Republican?
BEGICH STEVENS UNDECIDED
ALL 50% 44% 6%
MEN 46% 49% 5%
WOMEN 54% 39% 7%
DEMOCRATS 87% 6% 7%
REPUBLICANS 14% 82% 4%
INDEPENDENTS 57% 36% 7%
18-29 56% 37% 7%
30-44 46% 46% 8%
45-59 52% 44% 4%
60+ 46% 48% 6%
ANCHORAGE 52% 41% 7%
CENTRAL/OTHER 42% 53% 5%
FAIRBANKS/JUNEAU 51% 43% 6%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?
MCCAIN OBAMA OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 55% 38% 2% 5%
MEN 59% 34% 3% 4%
WOMEN 51% 42% 1% 6%
DEMOCRATS 12% 84% 1% 3%
REPUBLICANS 86% 7% 1% 6%
OTHER 54% 38% 3% 5%
18-29 48% 47% 1% 4%
30-44 60% 30% 3% 7%
45-59 54% 43% 2% 1%
60+ 58% 31% 2% 9%
ANCHORAGE 55% 37% 2% 6%
CENTRAL/OTHER 58% 35% 1% 6%
FAIRBANKS/JUNEAU 54% 41% 2% 3%