Okay this is it. I've refused to believe for a while now, to believe that Florida is a toss-up. It is, and Obama is steadily rising:
http://thepage.time.com/...
(will acquire proper link soon. humor me for now)
Chucky T. is on Morning Joe right now and he's explaining that Obama has closed the gap in 4 key geographical area's: Pensacola, Orlando, Tampa-bay and Jacksonville. Chuck also said Florida is tuned-in to this election and Floridian's (just like Virginians) care more than others, at least relatively, about the economy.
He also said that while Pensacola is reliably republican and Orlando is relatively republican, Obama has narrowed the gap in both areas, especially in Pensacola. He said Orlando is now a toss-up.
more....Jacksonville is swinging towards Obama and Tampa-bay known as the barometer for how Florida will go is also now a toss-up. Go figure...
So now where is Obama hanging out this week? Yeah you got it: Tampa Bay. He's prepping for the debates in Florida. Smart.
1 week of free media attention. Gore did this in 2000.
Some internals from the poll:
Trust to handle the economy: Obama 49, McCain 44
Trust to handle the economy (undecided voters): Obama 28, McCain 22
Among Cubans/Hispanics: McCain 49, Obama 43 (expect this number to move in Obama's favor over the next 5 weeks).
Among seniors (65+): McCain 48, Obama 44 (has anyone noticed that a lot of Obama's gains in the polls over the last week have come at the expense of seniors? Is this attributable to the Palin effect? If McCain can't wipe the floor with seniors then he is toast!)
UPDATE from first read:
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/...
If you want to know why Obama is doing his debate prep today in -- of all places -- Tampa, FL, look no further than the latest TODAY Show/NBC/Mason-Dixon poll, which has Obama up in the Sunshine State by two points, 47%-45%. Yet inside those numbers, Obama leads McCain in the Tampa Bay area (Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco, Hernando, and Polk counties) by a 49%-43% margin. Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker says the key to winning Florida statewide is usually through Tampa Bay, and Obama’s six-point lead in the area explains why he’s ahead in this poll. Moreover, outside of Nevada, there is probably not another state that has been hurt more by the housing and credit crunch, and that may be benefiting Obama right now. Also potentially troublesome for McCain in this must-win GOP state, he leads by just six among Hispanics (49%-43%), which in Florida is made up of a majority of Cubans. (If Obama does pick off younger Cubans, he may close the overall gap thanks to his large lead among non-Cuban Hispanics in the I-4 corridor.) Also, McCain's four-point lead among seniors (48%-44%) is not as big as he needs it to be to offset the electorate-changing demographics among blacks and young voters. So Obama's decision to prep for Friday's debate in Florida is turning into a smart play, huh? Any extra day in Florida might pay off...
Eagerly awaiting PPP's new Colorado poll. Is it safe to say now, that Colorado leans (like really leaning) Obama? Looks like IA's Obama +10 in Colorado might not be an outlier....hmm..