The McCain campaign may have sabotoged its chances to overtake Democratic Party opponent Barack Obama in the weeks leading up to the 2008 Election. On the other hand, this latest move may just be adding to a sinking ship.
As the American voting public continues to gravitate to his Democratic rival, John McCain's attempt to postpone the first Presidential Debate (scheduled for Friday, September 26) was tossed back in his face by a resolute Obama - who eschewed the idea that a candidate for President cannot work to achieve public policy solutions while continuing to campaign and debate.
In his response to McCain's suggestion, Obama stated, "Presidents are going to have to deal with more than one thing at a time. It's not necessary for us to think that we can only do one thing and suspend everything else."
McCain's terrible blunder couldn't come at a worse time. Below are the most recent state and national polls, all of which show public support drifting away from McCain and toward Obama:
LA Times/Bloomberg 09/19 - 09/22 838 LV 49 45 Obama +4
ABC News/Wash Post 09/19 - 09/22 780 LV 52 43 Obama +9
Gallup Tracking 09/21 - 09/23 2740 RV 47 44 Obama +3
FOX News 09/22 - 09/23 900 RV 45 39 Obama +6
Hotline/FD Tracking 09/22 - 09/24 912 RV 47 43 Obama +4
Rasmussen Tracking 09/22 - 09/24 3000 LV 49 46 Obama +3
PA
CNN/Time 09/21 - 09/23 730 LV 53 44 Obama +9
MI
EPIC-MRA 09/20 - 09/22 400 LV 48 38 Obama +10
NC
Rasmussen 09/23 - 09/23 500 LV 47 49 Obama +2
WI
Research 2000 09/22 - 09/23 600 LV 49 43 Obama +6
NH
Marist 09/17 - 09/21 604 LV 51 45 Obama +6
OH
Marist 09/11 - 09/15 565 LV 45 47 Obama +2
FL
NBC/Mason-Dixon 09/16 - 09/18 625 LV 45 47 Obama +2
CO
InAdv/PollPosition 09/23 - 09/23 505 LV 50 41 Obama +9
NM
SurveyUSA 09/14 - 09/16 671 LV 52 44 Obama +8
IA
SurveyUSA 09/17 - 09/18 702 LV 54 43 Obama +11
According to Realclearpolitics.com, Obama now holds the following electoral advantage:
RCP Electoral Count 228 174 Obama +54
After careful study of polling trends and data gathered from focus groups here in North Central Indiana (a 60-40 Bush state in 2004 that is statistically even between McCain and Obama as of today), I have narrowed down the reasons for this dramatic and decisive swing to two salient narratives:
It's the Economy...again
This one is a no-brainer, but its importance regarding this year's election cannot be overstated. Reports out of the U.S Department of Labor today have jobless claims increasing by 493,000. Gas prices are still hovering at about $4.00/gallon. The financial markets have collapsed - and voters' 401K's are plummeting on a near-daily basis.
In short, the American economy is a complete disaster - and the voting public is justifiably blaming the party that controlled the White House for the last eight years and Congress for six of those eight years. It stands to reason that they would eventually remember that John McCain was a central part of that process and hold him accountable. Many Republicans I surveyed in my focus group expressed an extreme dissatisfaction with the fact that McCain has flip-flopped on so many issues during the campaign - including taxes, immigration, regulation/deregulation, and the size of government. Their sentiment was that if McCain insists on supporting increased government regulation of the economy and bailouts that they may as well vote for Obama. Democrats and Independents expressed rising support for Obama - with only two of twenty Independents stating that they are not planning to vote for the Democratic Party candidate for President.
The Integrity Factor
I have to admit, this one threw me for a loop. Of the focus group members I queried, a resounding 87% of them expressed concern over McCain's involvement in the 'Keating Five' scandal, McCain's economic adviser Carly Fiorina's history at HP, and McCain Campaign Manager Rick Davis' ties to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. McCain is a man long noted for his heroic valor as a soldier. It was surprising to me to hear not just partisan Democrats, but also Independents and Republicans in a traditionally Red state like Indiana express such distaste for McCain based on his history. And what's more, the focus group members seemed to know this information without being reminded - which indicates that the electorate may be more attentive and informed regarding the finer points of the economy than many had first thought.
By contrast, when Barack Obama's 'associations' were brought up, there was mildly-fleeting concern from many Republicans and a couple of Independents. Even the most ardent supporters of McCain admitted that McCain's association with Keating far outweighs Obama's association with Jeremiah Wright, whom they all almost unanimously labeled a 'crackpot'. Keating, on the other hand, was a very real matter with teeth that cut deep considering the source of the country's current financial crisis.
What is most encouraging about these polls and this focus group is the widespread, substantive direction they all seem to be moving. I was purposefully hard on Obama when I discussed economic issues with the focus group because I wanted to know if they were simply parroting media talking points or expressing deep, passionate beliefs. Indiana is not a state well-known for its love of anything politically progressive, but I get the sense that this sort of ideological movement is sweeping the fields here. In any other election season, this group would have been out for blood regarding someone like Obama. That they embraced his message and were so quick to turn on McCain (and Bush) leads me to believe that the McCain campaign is justified in its panic. Solid Red states like NC, VA, and IN are now threatening to turn Blue. Obama's message is resonating in the American Heartland, which is outstanding news for the change candidate in this election.
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