The Democrats are lucky to have three very capable candidates running for President. Each person brings something unique to the race, and each person appears presidential. That said, I believe that Senator Hillary Clinton is the most electable candidate. This diary is not meant to argue that electability is the only criteria that should be taken into consideration when choosing a President. This diary is also not meant as an attack on Senator Obama. The purpose of this diary is to centralize the reasons I believe Senator Clinton is the most electable.
Key Constituencies.Hillary Clinton and her team of political advisers understand that isolating key Democratic constituencies is essential to winning a general election. senator Obama has spent a lot of time courting independents and Republicans and has neglected the Democratic base. The New Hampshire primary, which Hillary won largely, because she received massive support among die hard democrats illustrates the importance of shoring up the base.
The Donnie McClurkin situation represents Senator Obama's willingness to isolate an important Democratic group gays, lesbians, bisexuals, and transgendered individuals. The scandal is concerning not only because of McClurkin's bigoted and antiquated beliefs, but because it shows a willingess to disregard and important voting block. This strategy is a primacy strategy that ignores general election strategy. Courting black evangelicals is a way to win the South Carolina primary. In a general election Obama it will hurt Obama that he has isolated gay voters.
Unified Democratic Party. The most recent CNN Pollshows that close to 50 percent of Americans continue to support Hillary Clinton. A refusal to hop on the Hilltrain could result in a Democratic party that is not unified coming out of the primary season.
Responding to Attacks. Even Obama supporters acknowledge that he has not been tested when it comes to Republican attacks.
The idea for a "war room" which would be responsible for responding to negative republican attacks was initially conceived by Hillary Clinton in 1992 when her husband was running for the presidency. It may be unpopular to say this but winning elections is important. In order to win elections you have to play politics better than anyone else. The Republicans know how to play dirty and rely heavily on the politics of personal attack. If you do not win elections you cannot effectuate change that is desperately needed. The Clinton's are notorious for playing politics.... so what? They win elections and they work to make the world better. Democrats should be doing whatever it takes to win the nomination and then the general election. In the end it is not just about what you do to win an election it is much more about what you WILL do when you are elected.
Even people who do not like the Clinton's admit that the Clinton's strategy of responding to attacks works:
They don’t call it the Clinton machine for nothing," said Larry Sabato, professor of politics at Virginia University. "They take every gnat and smash it with a sledgehammer. It’s mean, but it works."
Experience and Political Resume. The Republicans are going to make the election about experience and national security. opponents of Clinton tend to reduce her experience down to 8 years in the White House, and argue that that experience is not relevant experience. This website includes the resume of Clinton. Her experience expands far beyond being the First Lady (which I do think IS relevant experience). Senator Clinton will be able to stand up to questions about experience in ways that Obama will not.
Appearance of Strength. Few people would argue that Senator Clinton does not appear to be a strong leader. One tactic Republicans have used to defeat Democrats (John Kerry anyone?) is by making them appear weak. Even the best Republican candidate will have a hard time making Clinton appear weak. She is willing to use force, voted to classify the Iranian National Guard a terrorist organization, and believes in aggressive (and effective) diplomacy.
Support of Women. There is not much to say here. Women make up 54 percent of the electorate. New Hampshire proves that Hillary Clinton can draw in a lot of women voters. From the AP
Also vital to Clinton's recovery was the turnaround in women's votes. Obama won more female votes in Iowa, where Clinton finished third in the caucus last week. But women proved crucial to Clinton's New Hampshire win, voting in heavier numbers than men, and giving 46 percent of their vote to Clinton, compared to 34 percent for Obama and 15 percent for Edwards.
Political Team Hillary Clinton has the best political team in the business. She also has one of the best political advisers in the world, Bill Clinton.
The Huffington Post explains why this matters,
"...the Clinton machine is a well-honed, heavy cash generating, smooth running machine. In the crush and heat of a long campaign, that's what it takes to win votes and ultimately elections. That's why Clinton trumps, and will continue to trump, Obama."
Her Baggage is Front and Center. We already know Clinton's weaknesses. The Convention and Clinton's campaign will be able to focus on these negatives. With Obama his political team will have to adjust on the fly which will be much harder. Also, because there have been so many Clinton scandals (many of which had no validity) it will be harder to make negative attacks stick. The Boston Globe takes it one step further and argues that Clinton's negatives may be her best asset,
"The tactics... will be to drive up the negatives of whoever our nominee is, and it will all be fresh information," said Clinton, speaking to about 100 people gathered in the backyard of a Victorian home. "It will all be, 'Oh you didn't know? Let us tell you. Let us paint a caricature...' Whereas I have the somewhat mixed, but I think rather fortunate blessing, of already starting with those negatives."
Debate Skill. Clinton is an excellent debater. I have written before about why that matters more in a general election than in the primaries. Clinton will be able to stand up to a Republican opponent, draw important distinctions, is unlikely to be surprised, will be able to launch several attacks at once, and is often able to hit her opponents with things they are unprepared for.
These are the reasons that I feel strongly Hillary Clinton is the most electable Democrat in the race.