In a poll from ARG, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama by three points among likely caucus-goers with John Edwards holding on to a strong third place showing. Eight percent of those polled remain undecided heading into Saturday's caucus.
The poll, which was taken on January 9-14, has a margin of error of 4%. http://americanresearchgroup.com/... In it, Clinton leads Obama 35% to 32% with 25% supporting John Edwards. Among Democrats (89% of the sample), the Clinton lead is 5 points (37/32/23) with 8% undecided. Most notably, among independents, it is Edwards that holds a lead with 42%. Obama has 34% and Clinton 17%. 7% are undecided.
While there are problems (IMO) with the survey due to its sample size and methodology, it is one of the few pieces of poll data to emerge from Nevada and bucks the conventional wisdom that Obama is a likely if not probable winner. It also should provide some hope to Edwards supporters, because his showing is unexpectedly strong. It should be noted that this poll does not reflect any impact from last night's debate, nor does it probably reflect fully the fallout from the caucus site lawsuit, for which a hearing is scheduled for 9AM Thursday.