John McCain's ascension in the Republican race suddenly shifts the calculus for Democratic primary voters. All primary voters should consider this analysis before voting.
With John McCain resuming his establishment candidate status, Democratic primary voters need to consider the environment before casting their votes for the Democratic nominee.
First, let me say that I stand by the belief that every voter should vote for who they want to be President. But for those Democrats who like all the Democratic candidates, you should consider the field and the environment carefully -- your vote could make a difference in which party takes the White House this fall.
Make no mistake: if he wins the Republican nomination, John McCain will be the next Reagan in terms of attracting independents and conservative Democrats. Remember the "Reagan Democrat" revolution? You can bet on a very similar wave following McCain. Additionally, independents are the largest growing political faction in American politics today.
Skeptical of this prediction? Consider this: McCain stands for things that resonate with moderate and liberal minds: Common sense. Pragmatic solutions. A collaborative, introspective style. Does not operate in the frame of totalitarian or evangelical lock-step. Wears his religion similarly to most Democrats. Knows the issues in detail like Democrats. The list goes on and on.
I just watched McCain's South Carolina victory speech, and I found that it resonated with me quite well as a progressive independent. Yes, John McCain represents conservative policies, but his communications style and persona are strikingly moderate-to-liberal. This juxtaposition is critical to The McCain Factor.
For those of us moderates who follow this sport closely, we know that McCain might be fine and dandy as a person, but the Republican establishment that would encompass him as President would cloud and warp his views on reality just like the current establishment does for George W. Bush. Sure, it won't be as bad, but the Republican Machine will still be gainfully employed and circling the executive branch.
Yet most people don't follow politics closely, so these little nuances don't register. What registers is McCain's persona as a pragmatic, reasonable conservative that might just be a good counterbalance to an even more Democratic congress in 2008.
Tactically, The McCain Factor means:
- Hard-core conservatives and many evangelicals will stay home or back niche candidates.
- Moderate Republicans will be relieved that they can vote for someone who seems so different than their current Embarrassment-in-Chief.
- Moderate Democrats (esp. men) will be attracted to a man who has a track record of having good judgment, is principled, and is the most confident in his convictions.
- Independents (a rising share of the populace) will be attracted to McCain for the same reason as male Moderate Democrats, but will also be attracted to McCain's embodiment of putting America before his party.
This concept of Nation before Party is powerful and under-reported. This is not a platform, policy, or position -- it's an orientation. And because it defies the traditional blue/red framework, it's something that voters respond to, yet is not generally tracked or analyzed. Like any factor that is not polled, it is unlikely to be a topic reported on.
Independents are obviously attracted to this America-first model, as these voters have made the same decision by not deciding to join a national political party.
So, what is a voter to make of all this?
As Democrats consider their candidate for the Democratic nomination, and assuming that John McCain surges to the nomination of his party, The McCain Factor should be taken very seriously. Think about a presidential race against John McCain and the electoral demographic factors outlined above. Then hold up your favorite candidate for an electoral analysis and see how he or she performs when pitted against The McCain Factor.