In this election, I seem to be extremely consistent in my support for losers. Before he dropped out of the race, I was a Biden supporter because of his intelligence, pragmatism, and passion. Once that horse was put out to stud, I have tentatively backed Edwards for mostly the same reasons (Biden and Edwards are more similar than many realized). At this point, Edwards' viability as a candidate is questionable, and I have not yet filled out my absentee ballot. Right now, many Edwards supporters are considering changing candidates. But to whom? To those who think the answer is clear: think again.
Conventional wisdom says that Edwards supporters will turn to Obama. I think the mistake people make, however, is to confuse Edwards supporters with Edwards himself. Edwards the candidate would undoubtedly support Obama over Clinton. As someone who built his campaign around fighting the corporate stranglehold over Washington, Edwards would be downright hypocritical to throw his weight to Clinton, someone he has repeatedly excoriated for accepting lobbyist dollars. Edwards and Obama both speak in terms of scrapping the old formula in favor of a new methodology and a new perspective on governing.
For younger voters such as myself, this makes complete sense. Throughout out politically conscious years, all we have known is four years of Bush, eight years of Clinton, and eight excruciating years of another Bush. The possibility of eight more years of another Clinton does not appeal to many of us. However, young voters still only made up 17% of the 122,000 Iowa Democratic Caucus participants. This group will undoubtedly favor Obama over Clinton, considering the fact that 57% of Iowa Caucus-goers caucused for Obama while only 11% went for Clinton.
The non-youth-vote will not be so easy to predict. In the South, Obama's support amongst white union members is a measly 12%, while Clinton's is 19% and Edwards' is a whopping 50%. These voters are unlikely to make Obama their second choice, seeing as how this is the major demographic Obama has yet to tap. Clinton, on the other hand, has been wildly successful at garnering the support of white Democratic voters in the South with high school education or less. While Edwards may have more in common with Obama, Edwards supporters seem to have much more in common with Clinton supporters.
This is especially notable in Edwards' virtually non-existent support amongst black voters. Nationally, Obama has 60% support from black voters while Clinton has 32%. In this historical election, it is understandable why Edwards was unable to win over black voters. His competition is the wife of the "first black president" and the first viable presidential candidate who is actually black. It is therefore unlikely that African-American voters abandoning Edwards will tip the scale in favor of either of the alternative candidates.
While Edwards and Obama are both running as change candidates, their respective supporters don't necessarily share that characteristic. While Edwards' white, unionized supporters in the South may turn their support to Clinton, the progressive 20-somethings on his side will back Obama. In the end, though, I don't want to make my choice dependent upon the trends of others. After all, my own trend is to support the loser. In this case, that is a trend I don't mind seeing through. I think I'll stick with Edwards.