February 5th. Remember that date. 20.. count them 20 states hold their primaries and caucuses. Twenty who's total delegate count add up to 2,062. That's just over 50% of the delegates that would be needed to win the nomination. I could have never imagined super Tuesday looking this way; still this is how it goes. Imagine for a moment that YOU are the candidate and are facing this huge block of states that will be in play. What would be your strategy? Where would you spend your advertising dollars? Where would you be in person the most? Are there any states you really don't want to put alot of effort into in favor of larger delegate rich states?
Lets take a look at Superduper Tuesday:
Here are the states (Democratic side) in order of their delegate strength-
* California- (the big prize) 441
* New York- 280
* Illinois- 185
* New Jersey- 127
* Massachusetts- 121
* Georgia- 104
* Minnesota- 88
* Missouri- 88
* Tennesee- 85
* Colorado- 71
* Arizona- 67
* Connecticut- 61
* Alabama- 60
* Arkansas- 47
* Oklahoma- 47
* Kansas- 40
* New Mexico- 38
* Utah- 29
* Delaware- 23
* Idaho- 23
* North Dakota- 21
* Alaska- 18
* American Samoa- 13
* Democrats Abroad- 11
WHEW.. that's a list isnt it?
Taking a look at the candidates, you would expect that Hillary would win New York and Barack would win Illinois, so then what? You would think that regional proximity to other states would benefit the candidates nearer those states- for instance, I might expect Hillary to do quite well in Connecticut and Massachusetts and New Jersey, as well as I might expect Barack to do well in Minnesota and Missouri.
John Edwards has a tougher road perhaps, but if he goes after a Southern Strategy he could do quite well in Georgia, Alabama and Oklahoma.
Obviously it takes a lot of money to compete in this Mega Delegates Mania, but that doesn't mean you have to spend all your money on one state (aka California) to do well. Taking a lot of the smaller delegate states could set you up well when the delegate count nears that magic number of 2026 to nominate.
No matter how you slice it. Tsunami Tuesday could end up with all three candidates winning their fair share of states and keeping all of us awake a little longer at night.