OK, we've got the conventional picks for the podium in Sunday's Paris-Roubaix: Van Petegem, Boonen and Backstedt. We have some outside shots like an in-form sentimental pick in Bobby Julich, or a past podium, all-round mucker like Wesemann or Ekimov.
My choice: bet the field.
Update: Astute reader Frank suggests Julich will sit this one out... and he's right!
The weather is supposed to be awful, making the run to Roubaix even more of a crapshoot than ever. No matter how good their form, the odds are pretty high that a single favorite -- say, Boonen -- will be the guy who's lucky enough to have the fewest crashes, flats, and other holdups. I'll allow that one of the big three (Backstedt?) will stay upright, but two of them will be shaking their heads at the end of the race, like so many others.
That leaves an outside favorite... or someone we weren't really thinking of from the field at large. Like I said, if the weather is as awful as predicted, bet the field.
Still, P-R is the middle of the season, with great races like Amstel Gold and L-B-L left, so this Sunday's trip to hell will be a chance to consider some other important questions. Like, is Boonen's lame showing at Wevelgem a sign that he's saving himself for Paris-Roubaix, or a sign that his run of brilliance is leveling off? Can Julich keep his amazing comeback spring going, and maybe nab a palmare or a podium spot in a classic? Will Discovery ever get their tactics right this spring and launch one of their five legitimate contenders? Can Lance take an elusive classic win before it's too late?
I'll spare the midseason grades... all we have determined in the last couple weeks is who owns Belgium. And I don't mean Nico Mattan.