ObDisclosure: I'm an Edwards supporter who will still be voting for John in April unless he endorses someone else.
Last night I was thinking about the abruptness of John's decision, and I've been speculating about the possible reason behind it.
If you're an Edwards supporter and want to join me in wild conjecture, why not follow me after the jump?
Things I've been pondering:
I read a news article yesterday (which I can't find today, damn) that said the decision to suspend was probably made within just one to two days of announcing, and that it was just him & Elizabeth discussing, and the advisers were surprised.
They'd already planned the ad buys for the Super Tuesday states.
They've gone on record saying it's nothing to do with Elizabeth's health.
The odd wording in John's speech to "step aside" -- it almost sounded like an ironic call out or a quote.
Novakula repeated that "Obama offered Edwards the AG" rumor that's been floating around blogistan (who started that?)
Edwards doesn't endorse but makes a point of saying he's called both Clinton & Obama.
So, if it's not Elizabeth's health or some other personal matter, here's what I'm left with:
Something external made them decide. Either an offer or a threat or both. If there's something I know from the Edwards' record is that they're fighters and tough negotiators. And they've been saying they'll stay in all the way to the convention.
Both Obama & Clinton want him out, obviously. Possibly Dem Party leaders too. The last these guys want is a brokered convention, because the outcome of that is too uncertain.
So it's been like a game of chicken (who blinks first). I think Obama & Clinton blinked -- they both need to have a decisive victory on Feb 5 so the other one just can't catch up. Edwards being in diminishes that possibility.
What if this is the "deal": Obama & Clinton both asked Edwards to step aside to let them duke it out. If someone emerges with a major major lead on Feb 5, whoever that person is, gives Edwards whatever it is (VP? AG? who knows).
So, are you pondering what I'm pondering? Let me know what you think.
UPDATE: There are notes on an Edwards conference call yesterday posted at DU. Check it out. H/T Suburban Guerrilla.