The debate this evening demonstrated that the Democratic Party has two very able and articulate candidates for the Presidency. As progressives, we have good reason to be optimistic about the upcoming election. I have chosen to support Senator Barack Obama, and my rationale follows below.
Obama = Democratic Turnout
The best reason for the Democratic Party to nominate Senator Barack Obama for the Presidency is that he generates extraordinary turnout at the polls among two demographic groups that have traditionally under-performed; youth, and African-Americans. Younger people are voting in the Democratic primaries at three times the level of prior years, and most of their support is going to Obama. The numbers for black turnout in 2008 far exceed previous years, and I think it is reasonable to expect that the participation rate of both youth and African-Americans will increase even further in the November general election if Obama is our nominee. The hotly-contested 'swing' states of Ohio and Florida both have significant concentrations of minority voters, and Obama's presence at the top of the ticket will likely put both of them in the Democratic column.
If we take the Democratic base of liberals, enviros, labor unions, and the various other progressive constituencies, and add in a huge youth componenent, plus millions of newly energized black voters, plus the rapidly growing Latino consituency..... Voila! We have the recipe for a tidal wave that has the potential to make the Democratic Party the dominant political institution in this country for the next century and beyond. With Obama's ability to inspire voter turnout there are also favorable implications for all of our downticket races, from the White House through the Congressional contests, the Governorships, State and County offices, all the way down to local municipal races. We have seen many close elections in recent years that would have gone our way with stronger turnout.
There is no equivalent scenario on the Republican side; their 'big tent' is already in tatters, and they simply cannot produce the sort of turnout that Obama can. And whatever her other qualities might be, Hilary Clinton does not attract huge numbers of previously disenfranchised voters into the pool the way Barack Obama does. The Obama campaign raised a spectacular $32 million in the month of January alone, and he has received powerful endorsements from many of the most visible and respected Democratic politicians, which will lead to further endorsements, and an enhanced ability to raise money down the stretch. 90% of Obama's donors have given less than $100, which tells us that the Obama movment has populist roots that translate into real votes.
After eight years of Bush and Cheney, the GOP is struggling to raise money and its members are disillusioned. Many of their sitting Senators and Representatives have chosen not to run again. The prospects for a Democratic takeover of Congress are encouraging. This is not the time to do the Republicans a favor by nominating the one candidate (Hilary) who pushes their buttons and who would surely serve as a lightning rod for right wing organization and fundrasing. We should also be aware that the corporate media have a well-documented love affair with John McCain, and their bias would be a powerful weapon against us should Hilary be the nominee.
If Hilary Clinton were to be elected President and serve two terms, it would mean that the Bush and Clinton families could boast of an occupant in our White House for thirty-six consecutive years, beginning with Reagan's first term in 1980 and stretching until the year 2016. The sequence would look like this: Bush / Bush / Bush / Clinton / Clinton / Bush / Bush / Clinton / Clinton. Enough, already. We are not a 12th-century monarchy.
The end of the Bush-Cheney era will be a beautiful thing to behold, but I think we ought to aim higher and leap at the opportunity to have a transformative, once-in-a-millenium election that significantly alters the voting dynamics in this country for the long term, and Obama offers us that chance. The Republican strategists who are looking at the electoral landscape for the coming decades ought to be shaking in their boots, and we are damn fools if we don't seize the moment and make the most of it. There is some contrast between our two candidates on the issues, but the principal difference lies in Obama's ability to dramatically expand the base demographic for the Democratic side, thus winning the general election in November and reducing the Republican Party to a quaint irrelevancy for the forseeable future.
Eagleye
Hudson, NY
Feb. 1, 2008