Obama won a big victory in Iowa. He is a strong favorite to follow up with wins New Hampshire and South Carolina. The conventional wisdom on this site and in much of the media is that Hillary is finished. A couple of strong Hillary supporters here have already switched sides. Will I be giving up? Read more below the fold.
No way. I'm with Hillary until this race is over. And anyway, only 1/2 of one percent of the Democratic electorate has voted. After New Hampshire, it will still be about one percent. Who the heck folds in the first inning of a baseball game?
Here are my predictions, and I challenge anybody to refute them:
As of February 4 (the day before Super Tuesday, when about half the country votes)...
(1) Hillary Clinton will have won the most total votes in the Democratic primaries and caucuses to date.
(2) Hillary Clinton will be leading the delegate count in the Democratic race.
(3) Hillary Clinton will have the polling lead in a number of major states, including three to four of the following four states that make up nearly half the electorate of that day: New York, New Jersey, Arkansas, and California.
(4) Hillary Clinton will be running an aggressive multi-state campaign with major television advertising pointing out the differences between her and her leading opponent.
(5) Independents will be less influential than they have been in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Does Obama have strong momentum now? Of course. Is he the favorite. Definitely. But is there any reason to give up on Hillary? No way. The Clintons have always done there best when in a crunch, and I fully expect them to come through again.