The amazingly quick collapse of Hillary Clinton's campaign could be the opening that John Edwards was looking for.
In 2004, Edwards wanted a one-on-one vs. John Kerry but didn't get that until far too late in the process. If Barack Obama's win in New Hampshire effectively knocks out Clinton on Tuesday night, Edwards will have almost a month to make his case -- and he'll finally get the media coverage to do so, because make no mistake, the media want a contest.
From MSNBC's Tom Curry:
If Hillary Clinton were to suffer a defeat of large proportions on Tuesday night in the New Hampshire primary, and if her star were to fade in the succeeding contests in Nevada and South Carolina, she might either quit the race or cease to be a dominant factor.
Edwards would remain as the only person standing between Obama and the Democratic presidential nomination.
Edwards and his strategists are already planning for a two-man contest.
Edwards' strategist Joe Trippi weighs in on why knocking Clinton out of the race doesn't necessarily mean Obama's got the nomination:
"On Wednesday morning, people will wake up and say, ‘Jeez, this guy (Obama) is going to be our nominee,’" Trippi said. At that point, Trippi said, a closer examination will occur: "The world is going to say, who the hell is this guy?"
One liability for Obama is that, while he's an amazing stump speaker, debating is not his strong suit. He gets long-winded and wonkish. We saw on Saturday night how Edwards was able to rattle Clinton (and her emotional strain on Monday could indicate that she doesn't have much desire left for this race). If the debates become one-on-one duels between Obama and Edwards about what needs to be done to change Washington, that's going to provide Edwards with opportunities to rattle Obama.
Trippi explains why Edwards could succeed where Clinton failed -- because Edwards is offering a more direct, concrete change, something Clinton could not do:
And why would Edwards making specific arguments against Obama be any more effective than Clinton has been in making them in recent days?
"That’s simple: Clinton is the Establishment; she is the status quo," Trippi said. "If you want change and it’s Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, you vote for Barack Obama every time."
After Obama's win in New Hampshire Tuesday night, he will obviously have all the momentum. There's a very good chance it will take him to the nomination. But as NBC's Chuck Todd pointed out today, he hasn't had to run as the front-runner yet, with the added pressure that brings. We don't know how he will handle that. And the tone of the race will change if the media narrative shifts away from Clinton (status quo) vs. Obama (change) and instead becomes Obama (negotiating for change) vs. Edwards (fighting for change).
One of many reasons I've supported Edwards is because you can see in his eyes and hear in his voice that he simply will not give up while there's even a remote chance of victory.