Today's Daily Kos Research 2000 tracking poll has Obama up over McCain 52-40. All trackers are data from three days prior to posting, with the R2K numbers from today (yesterday's numbers in parentheses) and the other trackers from yesterday (previous day's data). LV=likely voter, RV=registered voter.
Monday's polls will include Fri-Sat-Sun, all post-debate.
Obama McCain MoE +/- RV/LV
Today
Research 2000: 52 (51) 40 (40) 3 LV
Yesterday
Battleground: 49 (49) 46 (44) 3.5 LV
Rasmussen: 51 (51) 44 (44) 2 LV
Diageo/Hotline: 48 (47) 42 (42) 3.2 RV
Gallup: 49 (48) 42 (43) 2 RV
On successive days in the R2K poll, Obama was up +11 Wed, +12 Thurs and +13 Fri, which is post-debate and Obama strongest day yet (MoE +/- 5.1 for individual days.) Interestingly, the Obama numbers (48-52) are more consistent than the McCain numbers (40-46), but the polls are all consistent in picking up an Obama lead.
As noted here, history says VP debates do not matter much. As noted here, the debate was judged a decisive win for Biden by the CBS and CNN insta-polls. Yesterday's R2K poll supports that interpretation. Joe Biden's fav/unfav is now at a high of +22 (Sarah Palin is at - 10.) John McCain's fav/unfav is also at a new low of - 5.
Update [2008-10-4 8:32:37 by DemFromCT]:
George Harris has all of the insta-polls in one place:
Biden Palin Undecided
CNN/Opinion Research 51 36
CBS 46 21
Fox 61 39
Survey USA 51 32 17 * CA [my error/not a national sample]
Survey USA 44 35 21 * FL
Survey USA 38 37 24 * OH
Survey USA 41 36 22 * WA (Fri)
Survey USA 39 42 18 * WA (Thur)
MediaCurves (indies) 67 33
This was from MediaCurves, to add to the CNN and CBS debate evaluation.
Now, media pundits like aggressors and they loved the winks, but I suspect the voters (this year) want substance, not "cute". Biden's understated (and under-rated) performance went over very well with the public. Insta-polls aren't always right, but the regular polls will answer this soon enough. Doggone it, the talking heads might once again be shocked and surprised, I betcha, despite their insistence that Palin did better than she did. Also.
And in the end, VP debates do not move presidential votes. With McCain trailing, too bad for him. He was the big loser Thursday night. Watching him sweat Indiana and North Carolina, let alone Florida and Ohio, tells you what you need to know.
More indirect evidence of the situation: McCain is running nearly all negative ads; the trouble is when your unfavs are this high, it's tough to do and escape unscathed. Another explanation is that the negative ads are eroding McCain's unfavorable rating, while the Palin debate performance did nothing to help him.
Being so aggressive has risks for McCain if it angers swing voters, who often say they are looking for candidates who offer a positive message about what they will do. That could be especially true this year, when frustration with Washington politics is acute and a desire for specifics on how to fix the economy and fight the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan is strong.
The pundits will say it ain't over until it's over, a week is a lifetime in politics, yadda yadda. I agree; it's all true. But as of today, the fundamentals of John McCain's campaign are not strong, Palin's debate performance looks weak. That's what the polls tell us today.