Welcome to October, 2008 - 31 days till the Presidential election. Obama's ahead, the clock is ticking, and everyone's waiting to see what McCain has up his sleeve - the dreaded October surprise.
It's hard to say to what depths the Republicans will sink trying to scare people McCain's way. But let's relax and look at what's actually happening.
Right now, the numbers look good for Sen. Barack Obama. He's up by a healthy margin in most national polls. And the next debate topics are seen to help him, if anything. Hypotheticals aside, overall trends favor Obama. But to win this, Obama supporters must fight. So let's take a closer look at where everything stands a month from the finish line.
Battleground States (Including Electoral Votes): 1-3 point difference in polls (+/-)
New Hampshire: 4
Ohio: 20
Florida: 27
Virginia: 13
North Carolina: 15
Indiana: 11
Missouri: 11
Colorado: 9
Nevada: 5
Total Electoral Votes: 115
Leaning Obama: OH, FL, VA, CO, NV, NH; EVs = 78
Leaning McCain: MO, IN; EVs = 22
Tie: NC = 15
Current Electoral College Count (according to electoral-vote.com, perspctv.com)
Obama: 338
McCain: 185
Count with all battleground states:
Obama: 375 (+105 needed to win)
McCain: 278 (+8 needed to win)
Count without any battleground states:
Obama: 260 (- 10)
McCain: 163 (-107)
What's Needed to Win:
Obama:
- Ohio
- Florida
- North Carolina
- Virginia
- Indiana
- Missouri
- Colorado and Nevada
- Colorado and New Hampshire
McCain:
- NV and OH and VA and NC and FL and IN and MO and CO
- or all of them minus New Hampshire.
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This count does not include a number of states sitting on the fringes of security for Obama: New Mexico, Washington, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Maine.
Other than Wisconsin (10 EVs) and Michigan (17 EVs), however, the polls in these states are closer to California and New York numbers than Ohio or Virginia. And McCain just pulled his resources out of Michigan to focus on Indiana which, if he lost there, would immediately give the White House to Obama, even if he were to lose every single other swing state (and hold onto states in his column). And according to MSNBC's Chuck Todd (10.3.08 6-7pm EST - and the polls), Pennsylvania is solidifying its support for Obama with a large concentration of undecideds better trusting his positions on the economy.
If all these states turn out to be misrepresented by the polls in McCain's favor, it'd be a free-for-all. (The opposite, obviously, would also be true.) But that's not going to happen. It might happen in one or two states - if anywhere, those in which Bush won in both '00 and '04. But those votes alone would not be enough for McCain to win.
Remember, October is the dreaded Wild Card Month. Any wrench thrown into this precarious contraption could turn this projection upside down - or it at least feels that way. But October surprises aside, the Smart Money is on Obama.
That said, two wild cards remain: racism and turnout. Common Democrat-knowledge/fear says Obama's poll numbers are better than the reality because people don't want to admit they're (at least a little) racist, but don't represent people without home phones, namely younger voters and minority voters.
While the race issue does exist and will play a role on election day, Obama has registered hundreds of thousands of new voters since he began his candidacy. While history points out that young people and other first-time voters' turnout isn't as trustworthy as return citizens, that was before Barack Obama.
There are 31 days left and it's about to get ugly. We don't know what's going to happen. But what I do know is, if you're an Obama supporter, now is not the time to sit idly; now is the time to fight*.
*How to fight: Register to Vote, Donate, Make Calls, Talk to Your Neighbors, Volunteer.
Update: Yes, I meant Indiana, not Illinois. My bad...