A draft of a new National Intelligence Estimate Warns that Iraq is on the brink of a new outbreak of secterian violence that may undo the surge.
Proving my saying that conventional wisdom is always the former, and rarely the latter, a new National Intelligence Estimate warns that eye of the storm in Iraq may be passing and a new wave of violence could be at hand.
While wingnuts and Liebercraps attribute the drop in violence to the 'success of the surge'; other causes such as de facto ethnic cleansing, the exodus of millions of Sunnis, and the Sadr ceasefire remain largely ignored.
http://news.yahoo.com/...
U.S. intelligence warns Iraq war could explode again
By Jonathan S. Landay, Warren P. Strobel and Nancy A. Youssef, McClatchy Newspapers Tue Oct 7, 5:15 PM ET
WASHINGTON —
A nearly completed high-level U.S. intelligence analysis warns that unresolved ethnic and sectarian tensions in Iraq could unleash a new wave of violence, potentially reversing the major security and political gains achieved over the last year
...
The findings seem to cast doubts on McCain's frequent assertions that the United States is "on a path to victory" in Iraq by underscoring the deep uncertainties of the situation despite the 30,000-strong U.S. troop surge for which he was the leading congressional advocate. ....
U.S. officials say last year's surge of 30,000 troops, all of whom have been withdrawn, was just one reason for the improvements. Other factors include the truce declared by anti-U.S. cleric Muqtada al Sadr , the leader of an Iran -backed Shiite Muslim militia; and the enlistment of former Sunni insurgents in Awakening groups created by the U.S. military to fight al Qaida in Iraq and other extremists.
I guess we will have the change the CD in the talking Sarah Palin Dolls , so it says something other than 'victory in Iraq"....
something Gen. Petreaus has disavowed...
"The findings of the intelligence estimate appear to be reflected in recent statements by Army Gen. David Petreaus , the former top U.S. commander in Iraq , who has called the situation "fragile" and "reversible" and said he will never declare victory there."
"The NIE findings parallel a Defense Department assessment last month that warned that despite "promising developments, security gains in Iraq remain fragile. A number of issues have the potential to upset progress."
Trouble spots include whether the former Sunni insurgents, also known as the Sons of Iraq , find permanent employment; provincial elections scheduled for January; Kirkuk's status; the fate of internally displaced people and returning refugees; and "malign Iranian influence," the unclassified Pentagon report said."
So I ask again- what the hell is it exactly that 'we are winning" - maybe the answer is in the question - we own a piece of hell.
It is high time to cut the last leg off the McCain campaign stool.
The intelligence agencies' estimate also raises worries about what would happen if Sadr, the anti-U.S. cleric, attempts to reassert himself, according to senior intelligence officials familiar with its contents.