If you read the polls the same way I do, you know that we’ve got a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to put government back on the side of the people. Exhibit A for this phenomenon is what our candidates are doing in the South. Let’s take a race I’ve had my eye on for months: AL-03 featuring Josh Segall taking on a very vulnerable Mike Rogers.
Josh belongs in both the “more” Democrats and “better” Democrats categories we throw around here: a progressive pragmatist who understands that his first duty as a congressman is to do good by his district. Unlike Mike Rogers, who ranks second from last in effectiveness among his House class of 2002, and in all likelihood will get even less done in a Congress featuring a muscular Democratic majority, Josh has pledged to be responsive to the needs of his district. What makes Josh the kind of guy we want to see in Congress is that he wants for his district what all of us want across the country: good paying jobs that stay here at home, rethinking our national energy strategy and investing more in green fuels while rebuilding our crumbling grid, standing up for veterans' health care and for the 21st Century GI Bill, and (something dear to many Kossacks' hearts) expanding affordable broadband access to every household in Alabama.
So far so good, right? But really...he's a Democrat running in eastern Alabama. What kind of chance does he have? Well guess what folks, Mike Rogers is finding out the hard way what lots of entrenched Republicans are waking up to all across the South: when all you do is hand out $28 billion in tax giveaways to oil companies while gas prices are skyrocketing, and all you do is vote against veterans' health benefits after they come home from their tours of duty, and all you do is bail out Wall Street with $700 billion and cast the deciding vote for CAFTA while your district has lost 15,000 jobs, the voters don't take kindly to you! That, my friends (sorry, couldn't resist) is why we've got a white hot race down in Alabama:
AL-03: Capital Survey Research Center (9/30-10/1, LV, 8/18 trend):
Josh Segall (D): 36 (33)
Mike Rogers (R-inc): 45 (54)
Other/Undecided: 19 (14)
While putting up 4 weeks of paid advertising against Rogers' 10 weeks, Josh and his team have taken what was once a 21 point deficit all the way down to 9 points in just one month! Guys, Mike Rogers is on the ropes and we can win this race. How do we do it? The way I see it it's pretty simple: we need to get Josh's message out across the district. AL-03 contains Auburn, Alabama State, Jacksonville State, and Tuskegee and boasts a 30% African American population - with Barack Obama at the top of the ticket you've got to like our chances at supercharging this part of the electorate. Meanwhile the campaign has been working to nail down Democratic support in this R+4 district. According to polling done by Anzalone-Liszt, Josh needs 17% more from white Democrats to bring overall support to 83% and he needs 10% more from white Independents to bring his total support to 40%. Sound tough? Look again at those numbers over the past month: during that time, Segall has gained 25% among white Democrats while Rogers has lost 23%. Segall has gained 11% among white Independents and Rogers has lost 7%.
This one has all the hallmarks of a nailbiter - I'd more than keep an eye on this one. I'd read more about what Josh stands for, and then I'd show him some love. Let's help these guys bring this one home.