There’s now a feeling of inevitability to an Obama victory on Nov. 4. His debate performance was sure-handed and confident, and I had little doubt that polls would declare him the victor. It’s not that McCain stumbled, or that Obama’s answers were so exceptional. It’s that Obama increasingly looks and sounds like a credible president whether you agree with him or not.
The most valid criticism of Obama is that he is inexperienced, and indeed his resume alone would convince few to support him. But he has persuaded voters that he possesses the temperament and dignity to go with his obvious intelligence. This makes McCain’s last-ditch attempts to label him “dangerous” futile. His campaign must have realized this, and thankfully spared us a mudslinging spectacle in this debate.
Winning the presidency is like any high-level job application: qualifications on paper get you an interview but once you’re there, how you handle yourself in person means everything. This is why comparisons of Palin and Obama fall flat: Obama proved his mettle through prolonged public scrutiny; Palin has avoided it at all costs. Little wonder that in the public mind, Obama transcends his inexperience while Palin now sinks to the level of hers.
Even John McCain, for all his experience and character, has undermined that image with negative and reactionary campaigning. Conservatives now admit that Obama has impressively constructed a façade of competence and capability, while McCain has damaged his own. Voters have a short memory, and recent impressions favor Obama.
Now that Obama’s lead is solidifying, I can empathize with McCain, who probably “deserves” to be president more than anyone. He’s been a war hero, a longstanding and independent Senator who should have been the 2000 Republican nominee, were it not for the smears of the Bush campaign. Now he is doomed by the economic crisis and Bush’s dismal record, neither of which is his fault. So his personal disdain for Obama is understandable if ungracious—not unlike that of the Clintons.
Things could still turn out differently, whether through an October surprise or the Bradley effect. But the urgency of electing a progressive leader is stronger now than ever, and I’m going to believe that this time, change really is on the way.
(cross posted at Blue In Green)