Many people follow the national tracking polls from organizations like Gallup, Public Policy Polling, Quinnipiac, Rasmussen, the Washington Post, and Daily Kos' own Research 2000.
They're useful polls for measuring national sentiment, and gaps in those polls greater than the margin of error do indicate a clear preference of the electorate.
Of course, we don't use one big happy national election to choose the President. The Electoral College system essentially makes this 50 separate elections, added together to determine a winner. So, I thought it would be good to see where various electoral vote projections see the race as of right now.
Let's take a look at several major electoral vote projections as of 8 a.m. ET today.
Pollster.com: Obama 229, McCain 174, Toss-Up 135
Analysis: A very promising poll. This says Obama only needs 41 out of the 135 remaining toss-up EVs to win. Even better, Pollster rates OH, VA, FL, PA and NC as toss-up states. PA has 21 of those 41 needed EVs, and I honestly think this state's deader than Julius Caesar to McCain.
Don't just take my word for it, though. Muhlenberg and Rasmussen both have Obama up in PA well outside the margin of error. (Quinnipiac actually claims Obama's +15 in PA, but I don't think that's reasonable, given my experiences on the ground here.)
Politico.com: Obama 348, McCain 190
Analysis: Politico's map is based primarily on RealClearPolitics polling data in what they define as "swing states". There are no toss-up states in their model, which could lead to big fluctuations in their EV estimates.
The bad news: Politico has Obama winning OH (20 EVs), VA (13 EVs) and FL (27 EVs). The good news: In this model, Obama could LOSE all three of those states, and still win the Electoral College.
Electoral-vote.com: Obama 286, McCain 190, Ties 62
Analysis: More bad news for McCain here. Obama could lose every single toss-up state plus Virginia, which is rated "Barely Dem" here - and still win 273 EVs. Not much else really needs to be said.
CNN Election Center: Obama 240, McCain 200, Toss-up 98
Analysis: OH, VA and FL are again the main battlegrounds in this poll, which is what I've believed for a while now. (Yes, I know polls show us doing well in NC too, but I still view that state as a long shot.)
One problem I have with CNN's projection: they say WI is a toss-up. However, all the September polling I've seen shows Obama up from three to eight points in WI. Also, none of it includes voter reaction to McCain's faux campaign suspension, Palin's Couric interview, the first Presidential debate or the bank failures. None of that is likely to help McCain there.
Assuming WI goes for Obama, that's 250 EVs in this model. So, he needs 20 more EVs, and can choose from OH, FL, MN + VA, VA + CO, MN + CO + NH or VA + NV + NH. (Extra fun: MN + CO or MN + NV + NH makes it 269, and Obama likely wins all EV tie scenarios, thanks to the majority of Democratic state delegations in Congress.)
FiveThirtyEight.com: Obama 336, McCain 270
Analysis: This is the site I like best for electoral polling. Nate Silver does an outstanding job with weighting aggregate polling data. He proved himself repeatedly throughout the primary, showing accuracy that might have been outdone only by the Obama campaign's internal polling.
FiveThirtyEight has OH and FL tilting ever-so-slightly Democratic, and VA tilting a little further left. Again, though, the underlying dynamic is arresting. Obama could LOSE Ohio, Virginia and Florida - and still win under this model!
SUMMARY: These electoral vote projections aren't running toward a narrow Obama victory. Every model here says Obama's well over 200 EVs in pocket, right now. Several point to Obama leading WITHOUT some combination of OH, PA, VA, FL and NC.
What's even better is that we never really discussed NV, CO or MN - three states I see as very strong pickup opportunities. Even a state like ND, which is almost as reliably Republican as they come, is not out of the question right now. Obama has McCain playing defense all over the electoral map, and the signs look very good right now for Election Day.
However, please don't mistake this with advocating relaxation. On the contrary, now is the time to get greedy. As the McCain campaign continues to melt down, we could be in position to actually get at least one branch of Congress to a filibuster-proof majority, and give President Obama a real mandate to actually change our political system for the better. Kultida Woods' lesson to her son Eldrick applies treble here: when your opponent's down, step on the neck!
Ohio, Virginia and Florida appear to be the tipping points for a landslide. Let's make McCain spend like crazy to defend those states. Go volunteer there, if you can. If you can't, go to Obama's website and get set up to phonebank to those states. Check out Vote for Change. Get your friends and neighbors registered. Then, if you can, vote early yourself, take Election Day off, and volunteer to drive them and others to the polls.
And, above all, don't let up! We can't afford to see this on November 5.