Polls are all over the place this days and I'm finding it more and more difficult to really trust any of them.When you have a poll showing Obama with a 8 point lead in West Virginia when the Obama internals at the same time , as I was told yesterday, show he has no chance there , then there surely is something wrong .
I called a friend of mine who is polling for the Obama campaign and he told me yesterday that he can't give me the actual numbers but I shouldn't trust anything most of these polls are showing these days. He said IA,PA,OH,FL,MN,NC,NM,NV,NH,VA,IN,CO are all very close and considered toss-ups by the Obama campaign, the national lead is a bit more than 5% but it ain't steady.
I never really assumed the race was over and I always thought it was silly to think it was , so I wasn't surprised by what he told me. He said their best path to victory right now is : Kerry states + IA,VA,CO . He didn't mention NM and I wondered why since all the polls see a solid Obama lead there.From the Kerry states,MN is the one they worry most about but he seemed confident they will end up winning all Kerry states.
He also told me the McCain convention bump was wildy exaggerated by the polls and he has actually never lead Obama in their national numbers.
The Obama campaign apparently isn't happy with all the talk about a landslide and they don't expect any landslide either.They think it will be close and when you see how volatile and unpredictable the campaigns have been in this election cycle, you'd be very cautious about any trend shown by the polls. .
My question to you: how would your pollster rating look like ?