So now I have taken some time to crunch the numbers in the Atlanta Region in 2004. Another poster told me that "Georgia is not all Atlanta", so I decided to research the totals in GA. As GA is becoming a competitive state late in the game for both US Senate candidate Jim Martin and Presidential nominee Barack Obama, I have done an initial analysis on the impact of the region.
More beneath the fold.
I first defined Metropolitan Atlanta as the counties that the US Census Bureau defines as its Metropolitan Statistical Area.What follows is the list of the 28 counties that make up Metropolitan Atlanta by population:
* Fulton (992,137)
* Gwinnett (776,380)
* DeKalb (737,093)
* Cobb (691,905)
* Clayton (272,217)
* Cherokee (204,363)
* Henry (186,037)
* Forsyth (158,914)
* Paulding (127,906)
* Douglas (124,495)
* Coweta (118,936)
* Carroll (111,954)
* Fayette (106,144)
* Newton (96,019)
* Bartow (92,834)
* Walton (83,144)
* Rockdale (82,052)
* Barrow (67,139)
* Spalding (62,826)
* Pickens (30,488)
* Haralson (28,718)
* Butts (23,759)
* Meriwether (22,748)
* Dawson (21,484)
* Pike (17,204)
* Lamar (16,961)
* Jasper (13,660)
* Heard (11,387)
I have placed the Democratic counties in the region in bold. They include Fulton County, which includes Atlanta; DeKalb County, home to former Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney; and Clayton County, home to Hartsfield International Airport. Fulton County basically includes the city limits of Atlanta, although a slight appendage extends into DeKalb. Clayton and DeKalb Counties are predominantly Black.
First of all I have to state that Bush won GA by 548,105 votes. He won 1,914,254 votes to Kerry's 1,366,149 votes. Once I had the statewide totals what I did was figure out the total for the Atlanta region. I calculated these figures using US Election Atlas. I crunched the numbers for those counties and Bush came out ahead by a margin of 1,010,662 to 813,139 votes over Kerry. This margin includes every county in Metropolitan Atlanta. Overall, Bush polled 197,523 votes ahead of Kerry in Metropolitan Atlanta.
But I wanted to find out the impact of exurban and suburban Atlanta. So what I did was remove the three Democratic areas of Clayton, DeKalb, and Fulton counties. I removed them from the spreadsheet to figure out how Bush fared in exurban and suburban Atlanta. Overall, in those 25 remaining counties, Bush won 779,605 votes to Kerry's 308,961 votes. Bush's margin in exurban and suburban Atlanta outside of Clayton, DeKalb, and Fulton was 470,644 votes, 85% of his ultimate 548,105 statewide vote margin! Bush won GA, not in the rural parts of the state, but in the Atlanta region.
The numbers in some of these counties were punishing. Bush won 83% in Forsyth County and 79% in Cherokee County. He polled similar margins across other exurban and suburban precincts. In sum, when I look at the data, the area outside of the city of Atlanta and close-in suburbs of Clayton and DeKalb counties voted as Republican as many inner-city areas vote Democratic. There wasn't a friendly Democratic precinct at all outside of those three counties.
Now the key question to ask is whether Chambliss and McCain will win the region by such a margin. I would say that the 2004 margins might be a little redder than normal because Kerry was from MA and I am sure that his being from the NE didn't play well in GA. At the same time, though, one could argue that Obama's race might drive out those voters against him more aggressively than if he were white. However, those voters might be canceled by increased Black turnout in Clayton, DeKalb, and Fulton counties.
People here have stated that they have been amazed at how GA has turned red over the last few cycles. Looking at these numbers it makes more sense, though. What seems to have happened is that the Atlanta region has grown significantly in the dark red portions, overwhelming the votes in other small-town rural parts of GA. For example, take the case of Forsyth County. In 2000 it accounted for only 35,755 votes. In 2004 it accounted for 56,904 votes! These counties seem to be growing by explosive margins since 2000.
I am looking at this data, and it seems like a Martin and Obama win is going to be very tough. While polling indicates that the state is indeed competitive, when I look at exurban and suburban Atlanta, they have a very steep mountain to overcome. Perhaps the economic situation and the gas shortages are making these voters more supportive. For Martin and Obama to win they probably need to cut the Bush 2004 margin in exurban and suburban Atlanta (not including Clayton, DeKalb, and Fulton counties) from 470,644 votes to perhaps around 300,00 votes. I'm not sure if this is realistic. Or they will have to significantly increase turnout among Black voters and other minorities in Clayton, DeKalb, and Fulton counties to overcome the growing dominance of such a dark red area. Or they have to win the rest of the state by a large margin to offset losses. They will have to win in places like Valdosta, Columbus, Savannah, Athens, and Macon.
I have heard, though, that the Atlanta area is considered to be the LA out of the SE. There is little public transportation outside of MARTA, thus requiring the voters living in the far-flung exurbs and distant suburbs to drive. Gas prices might make enough of them willing to support Martin and Obama.
The other thought that just came to mind is that the Atlanta exurbs and suburbs might be in the same place where places like Fairfax County, VA were in the 1970s and the 1980s. Judis and Texeira, authors of the Emerging Democratic Majority, argue that these high-growth Republican exurbs eventually reach their red peak and then become lighter pink to purple. I could see Cobb and Gwinnett, which are the closest suburban counties to Atlanta, to become slowly more friendly to the Democrats. Indeed there are a few Democrats in the State House who come from both Cobb and Gwinnett. I have heard that more Asians and other minorities are moving there, but I still think they will be red for the foreseeable future. Does anyone here think that Obama could get 40-45% in Cobb and Gwinnett?
But, overall, though, I think that McCain will win GA. However, it may be closer than what people expect. While some people may be right that "Georgia is not Atlanta," Atlanta is indeed a part of Georgia.
UPDATE:I totally forgot about the impact that Bob Barr might have on GA. If I recall Barr once represented the western exurbs and suburbs of Atlanta. If Barr were to get 3-5% in Atlanta, most of which would likely come from his old Congressional district, it might help Obama and hurt McCain.