My intentions in writing this diary are straight forward: We have to know what we are up against these last three weeks; why McCain is hell bent on whipping up hatred when by all appearances it is failing course of action; why we can't get complacent; and, most of all, why we must turn out as much of the vote early as we possibly can.
Rany Jazayerli, a writer for Baseball Prospectus, and an occasional contributor to fivethirtyeight.com on Muslim issues, wrote a compelling journal yesterday. His conclusion, in short, was that Barack Obama represents a game-changing threat to Osama Bin Ladin -- not in terms of his life or capture, because Bin ladin isn't afraid of death or imprisonment -- but a threat to Bin Ladin's overarching goal to inspire a World War III Clash of Civilizations betweeen Christians and Muslims.
More on the jump.
First, Jazayerli explains Bin Laden's objective behind the hideous attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon:
When bin Laden declared war on the United States, it was in the hope that the United States would declare war in return – not just on him, but on the entire Muslim world. He wanted war, the bigger and more protracted the better. He wanted the Clash of Civilizations. He wanted, in a very literal sense, The End of Days. He didn’t have the firepower or resources to trigger the apocalypse himself, so he baited someone who did – the United States of America.
Jazayeri is careful to explain that Bin Laden's motivations behind seeking to influence an election are not based out of a fear for who will more successfully prosecute the war in Afghanistan, or who is more likely to kill him.
I can’t stress this point enough: bin Laden and his followers don’t fear war because they don’t fear death – they welcome it. They believe, without reservation, that death brings martyrdom and eternal salvation. Until the very moment that the planes hit the towers, the hijackers on 9/11 were certain they had a one-way ticket to paradise. (The moment after the planes hit the towers is a different story.)
Jazayeri explains that we know Bin Laden is interested in influencing the election because he did so in 2004:
We know bin Laden would like to influence the election, because he’s done it before. On October 29, 2004 – four days before America went to the polls – Al-Jazeera broadcast excerpts of a video of bin Laden in which he attacked and openly mocked the Bush administration, and vowed to strike again.
Bin Laden did not overtly support John Kerry, at one point saying, "Your security is not in the hands of Kerry or Bush or al-Qaida. Your security is in your own hands and each state which does not harm our security will remain safe." But most of his comments were directed at the sitting president, such as, "It never occurred to us that the Commander-in-Chief of the country would leave 50,000 citizens in the two towers to face those horrors alone because he thought listening to a child discussing her goats was more important."
The predominant reaction, then, was to assume that bin Laden was rooting for a Kerry victory. Not surprisingly, following the release of his video, the needle moved a point or two – towards Bush. Voters certainly had every reason to give bin Laden the ink-stained finger, and bin Laden’s re-appearance on their TV screens was a not-so-subtle reminder of Bush’s most reassuring trait as president: his uncompromising stance towards terrorism (notwithstanding his ineptitude at implementing a strategy to combat it).
Which as, Jazayeri explained, "is exactly what bin Laden wanted." Jazayeri proceeded to evaluate why Bin Laden would prefer a McCain presidency:
This time around, we have one candidate who advocates a timetable to withdraw our troops from Iraq and divert those resources to Afghanistan in order to root out the people who actually attacked us seven years ago – bin Laden and his band of terrorists. And then we have a candidate who talks about maintaining U.S. forces in Iraq for 100 years if necessary, and sings songs in public about pre-emptively bombing Iran, which would set yet another gear turning in bin Laden’s scheme to bring about global war. Once again it appears that bin Laden would prefer the Republican candidate, and once again it appears that since any appearance by bin Laden is likely to tip voters towards favoring the decorated Vietnam War veteran, bin Laden’s best move is to show up with another October Surprise.
There also may be an additional component to why Barack Obama represents Bin Laden's worst nightmare in his quest for a Third World War: Obama is respected around the World; he lends credence to both the United States Government and United States' citizens. Barack Obama immediately redefines perceptions of our country and our role as standard bearers in the World on economic, social and developmental issues. Vis a vi, an Obama Presidency, regardless of the fighting on the soil of Iraq or Afghanistan would end the current Clash of Civilizations -- not through any change in the fighting itself -- but because the motivations behind the fighting would be crystallized. We Americans are going after the fuck who blew up our buildings, not the entire Islamic world.
And this is why John McCain is pushing memes, that would make Lee Atwater proud, and turn off all the independents whom he is seeking to court. McCain is praying for a game changer, a flag to wave and say, "See, we really don't know Obama." It's the only explanation for why McCain would follow such a self-destructive path.
So What can we do: Jazayeri's journal was enough to scare me out of complacency. We need a ten point lead, and we need to get as many votes in now as we possibly we can. We have to be sure to push everyone we speak to on the phones or meet during canvassing to break with tradition and vote now.
I also think it'd be wise to prepare for the eventuality that Bin Laden releases a video attacking McCain and supporting Obama. If Bin Laden's alive he is going to attempt to influence the elction. We need to have this message circulate, so that Bin Laden will not be taken at face value when his message is released -- that perhaps some of the traditional media will take the extra step and ask "What are Bin Laden's Objectives?" before they file, though I have little confidence that anything we supporters can do will change the upcoming story lines.
I apologize for the length of this journal. But I believe it is important for our community to be aware of Bin Laden's tactics, and be ready to fight against them, when/if he makes his insidious presence felt on this election.