from my entry to the contest. I add to my remarks there the following:
neither Gephardt nor Edwards is showing any movement in Zogby. While Kerry maintains a one-point edge over Dean, I give Dean a big advanatge in turnout. So, here goes nothing, and if I am even close, in anything except the order, i will be shocked.
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Trippi is quoted as saying they are confident they have the hardcount to win ifor a turnout of up to 135,000
So I will assume a turnout of 130,000 that would make the overall percentage 130,000/600,000 Democrats or 21.6%
Using projected hard counts, I will presume the released figure of 40,000 for Dean is low, and that he will draw 43,500 that is 33.5%
I will presume the released figure for Gephardt of 35,000 is high, and he will draw only 30,000 23.1%
I will presume a 2nd place finish for Kerry at around 26%
I will presume that Edwards fails to make 15% in a number of precincts, whichwill drop his overall numbers
So here's what it looks like
Dean 33.5
Kerry 26.0
Gephardt 23.1
Edwards 16.0
the rest Unaffiiated - which may happen in some precincts
on a turnout of 130,000 which if Dem Numerator is 600,00 is a percentage of 21.7
and what the heck do I know?
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Final comments [not on the main blog post] - people say there will be three tickets out of IA. There is no doubt in my mind that both Kerry and Dean come out of IA. While i think a 3rd place finish siginificantly behind the front two kills Gephradt, that he does not drop out officially, and may even try to compete in NH [although I'm not sure how], but that in all likelihood his campaing goes dormant, so he can still draw matching funds.
I'm not sure a distant fourth is enough to keep Edwards alive -- if he does not break 20%, I think he has real problems raising money. Yes, he will go to NH, trying to stay alive to SC on Feb 3, but I don't think he will get any bounce for NH, where he trails badly. Given that I think some of his support comes straight out of Dean's hide, I think that will help Howrad in NH. Likewise, kerry has to go after Clark in NH if hewants to survive, and Clark is likely to pick up and respond to the negaitve mailings Kerry is already doing. If Dean does come out of IA with a decent (5% or more) margin, he woud be very wise to stay positive in NH and let the other two cut themselves up. Since there is no threshold, 28-30% is probably still enough to carry the first primrary, and with a "bounce" for winning IA he could well get up to 35%