As the presidential race moves into its final weeks, there is a strong likelihood that the polls will tighten in McCain's favor. After all, at least 4-6% of those currently 'undecided' were McCain-leaners at one point, and McCain has a relatively low hurdle for bringing those voters home. However, while this may cause some to panic (we do, after all, see outbursts of fear whenever Gallup picks up an outlier), it is important to keep in mind that such movement is no serious cause for concern in this phase of the campaign. The point of the campaign where the candidates have to construct a coalition is over. While Obama will continue to try to persuade a chunk of the remaining undecideds, the election itself does not hinge on these voters. Certainly, McCain himself will want to put a focus on the national polls to make it appear that he is 'coming back,' but his desperate scramble to reassemble his coalition only indicates how far behind he really is.
Why is that?
In any election, there are essentially two phases. The first involves identifying one's coalition and then registering/contacting as many of those potential voters as possible. McCain himself largely ignored this phase, but Obama has excelled, a fact evident in the gradual 'registration bumps' we've seen since August. The end result is that Obama's coalition is now considerably larger than McCain's. He can move into election day merely with the coalition he already has, whereas McCain may need as many as 80% of the remaining undecideds to even be competitive. This is visible but less clear in the national polling. On the state level, however, we really see how strong the Obama coalition has become:
Colorado
Quinnipiac (Obama 52, McCain 43, Undecided 5)
Rasmussen (Obama 51, McCain 45, Undecided 4)
Florida
Rasmussen (Obama 51, McCain 46, Undecided 3)
Strategic Vision (Obama 52, McCain 44, Undecided 4)
Iowa
Rasmussen (Obama 51, McCain 43, Undecided 6)
SUSA (Obama 54, McCain 41, Undecided 5)
Michigan
Quinnipiac (Obama 54, McCain 38, Undecided 8)
Rasmussen (Obama 56, McCain 40, Undecided 4)
Minnesota
Quinnipiac (Obama 51, McCain 40, Undecided 9)
Rasmussen (Obama 52, McCain 45, Undecided 3)
Missouri
Rasmussen (Obama 50, McCain 47, Undecided 3)
SUSA (Obama 51, McCain 43, Undecided 6)
Nevada
Rasmussen (Obama 51, McCain 47, Undecided 2)
Research 2000 (Obama 50, McCain 43, Undecided 7)
New Hampshire
Rasmussen (Obama 53, McCain 43, Undecided 4)
SUSA (Obama 53, McCain 40, Undecided 7)
New Mexico
Rasmussen (Obama 49, McCain 44, Undecided 7)
SUSA (Obama 52, McCain 44, Undecided 4)
North Carolina
PPP (Obama 50, McCain 44, Undecided 6)
Rasmussen (Obama 48, McCain 48, Undecided 4)
Ohio
Marist (Obama 49, McCain 45, Undecided 6)
Rasmussen (Obama 49, McCain 47, Undecided 4)
Pennsylvania
Rasmussen (Obama 54, McCain 41, Undecided 5)
SUSA (Obama 55, McCain 40, Undecided 5)
Virginia
Rasmussen (Obama 50, McCain 47, Undecided 3)
SUSA (Obama 53, McCain 43, Undecided 4)
Wisconsin
Rasmussen (Obama 54, McCain 44, Undecided 2)
SUSA (Obama 52, McCain 42, Undecided 6)
In most of the above states, Obama will win even if McCain picks up every last undecided. In the others, McCain can only rely on undecideds to bring him into either a tie or very modest lead. And again, it is extraordinarily unlikely that McCain will win every undecided.
At this late point in the campaign, with the vast majority of voters having already settled on a decision, it is this crucial difference that expresses the true strength of Obama's position. Again, there are two phases to the campaign and in the first phase mentioned above, Obama has blown McCain right out of the water. Obama can win independent of the remaining undecideds, but McCain is completely dependent on undecided voters to even become competitive. This means that, in the final weeks of the campaign, McCain will still be stuck in Phase I, but Obama can shift much of his attention to Phase II.
What is Phase II? GOTV. Get-Out-the-Vote.
From this position, Obama can win merely by getting his current supporters to the polls, and while he'll continue to court undecideds in order to keep McCain in a weaker position, we are beyond the point where we need to worry about marginal shifts in Gallup and Rasmussen.
But this indicates another important point: while the strength of Obama's lead is not dependent on undecideds, it is dependent on our efforts to turn that lead into votes. In Phase II, phone banking and canvassing become all the more important, as this is the point where we actually build something concrete from the foundations we established in Phase I. That being the case, while we all have good reason to celebrate the polls, the polls only mean that our hard work will pay off if we actually do it.
So stop worrying about what Gallup will post at 1PM and go help Obama turn our coalition into a true progressive majority. There is no need to worry. There is no need to fear. We have the support. The only thing we need to do is make some calls, knock on some doors, and watch John McCain waste the last two weeks of his political career trying to scare a bunch of people who may not even bother to vote.