As the clock continues to run down, today shows no discernible tightening in the presidential race, and no appreciable improvement in the prospects of the GOP in Congressional elections. The urgency for a game-changing moment grows ever larger, but the probability of an effective game-changer grows more dim.
It is midnight in America, if you are a Republican.
Today, we have the "big five" trackers, plus a plethora of very good national polling (including the new CBS Poll). We also have individual results from 36 separate polls. Follow me for the entire report....
PRESIDENTIAL: NATIONAL AND TRACKING POLLS
Today, we saw only slight alterations to our "big five" tracking polls, as Barack Obama saw a slight fractional increase in his lead, from 7.4% to 7.6%.
Three of the five trackers stayed steady today. Gallup (I am following the lead of 538 and ElectionCentral and using their Likely Voter II model) held steady at a 53-43 Obama lead. Rasmussen held steady with a 50-45 Obama lead. Finally, Diageo/Hotline's numbers held at a six-point (48-42) Obama edge.
Research 2000 saw a one point dip in its numbers (down to 52-41), but that was offset by a two-point gain in the Zogby tracking poll, which gives Obama a 49-43 edge over John McCain.
In national numbers, this afternoon brings the new CBS poll on the election. Barack Obama holds a HUGE lead here, at 53% to 39% for Senator McCain. Also important--their right track/wrong track figures are the lowest in CBS polling history, with only 7% believing the country is on the right track.
LA Times and Bloomberg, who have been a little more tempered in their assessment of the race, goes heavily for Obama in their new survey. Including third party candidates, they peg the Obama lead at nine points, with Obama at 48%, McCain at 39%, and the "other candidates" at 4%. Ipsos/McClatchy gets almost identical numbers, with Obama at 48%, McCain at 39%, and other candidates snaring 3% of the vote.
In other national numbers, a pair of quasi-trackers show expanded leads for Barack Obama. Investor's Business Daily (every right-winger's favorite poll, since it still shows McCain in striking range) shows the Obama lead expanding to 45-42 (clearly, they do not press leaners). Meanwhile, the big story might be the record lead for Obama in the GWU/Battleground survey. Remember, it was a short ten days ago that this poll was INFALLIBLE in the eyes of Republicans, since it showed John McCain at parity with Barack Obama. Now, the margin is 13 points, with Obama at 53% and McCain at 40%.
TRACKING POLLS
Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 41%
Gallup: Obama 51%, McCain 42%
Zogby: Obama 49%, McCain 43%
Diageo/Hotline: Obama 48%, McCain 42%
Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 45%
Investors Business Daily: Obama 45%, McCain 42%
NATIONAL POLLS
CBS: Obama 53%, McCain 39%
GWU/Battleground: Obama 53%, McCain 40%
LA Times/Bloomberg: Obama 48%, McCain 39%, Others 4%
Ipsos/McClatchy: Obama 48%, McCain 39%, Others 3%
American Research Group: Obama 50%, McCain 45%
PRESIDENTIAL: STATE-BY-STATE POLLING
The big headline out of today's state polling was the massive leads Obama has built up in four key battleground states, according to Quinnipiac. In four states thought to be competitive just three weeks ago (Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin), Obama has leads ranging from nine to seventeen points. Worth noting--they polled before and after the second presidential debate. In the name of full disclosure, I am listing both polls. Note than #1 indicates the poll before the debate, while #2 indicates the poll after the debate.
Meanwhile, SurveyUSA gives Obama leads in Ohio and Pennsylvania, while PPP continues to see an Obama lead in the battleground state of North Carolina.
COLORADO #1--Quinnipiac: Obama 52%, McCain 43%
COLORADO #2--Quinnipiac: Obama 52%, McCain 43%
COLORADO #3--Suffolk: Obama 47%, McCain 43%, Others 3%
DELAWARE--Rasmussen: Obama 56%, McCain 41%
MICHIGAN #1--Quinnipiac: Obama 55%, McCain 37%
MICHIGAN #2--Quinnipiac: Obama 54%, McCain 38%
MINNESOTA #1--Quinnipiac: Obama 51%, McCain 43%
MINNESOTA #2--Quinnipiac: Obama 51%, McCain 40%
MISSOURI--PPP: Obama 48%, McCain 46%
NORTH CAROLINA--PPP: Obama 49%, McCain 46%, Others 1%
OHIO--SurveyUSA: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, Others 4%
OKLAHOMA--TV Poll: McCain 63%, Obama 32%
PENNSYLVANIA #1--Muhlenberg: Obama 51%, McCain 38%, Others 4%
PENNSYLVANIA #2--SurveyUSA: Obama 55%, McCain 40%, Others 4%
SOUTH CAROLINA--SurveyUSA: McCain 55%, Obama 41%, Others 3%
WISCONSIN #1--Quinnipiac: Obama 51%, McCain 43%
WISCONSIN #2--Quinnipiac: Obama 54%, McCain 37%
NON-PRESIDENTIAL POLLS
On the non-presidential front, the big news is probably Quinnipiac's numbers in the two Senate races in Colorado and Minnesota. The big news here is that we see some legitimate daylight between Democrat Mark Udall and Republican Bob Schaffer in Colorado (and a Suffolk poll today confirms that, as well), and we see further confirmation that Al Franken is leading Norm Coleman in Minnesota.
In other news, internal polls show that Dan Lungren REALLY wants you to know he is leading in CA-03 (releasing not one, but TWO, internal polls). And a trio of internal polls give Democrats leads in places they were previously thought to be trailing: NJ-03, NJ-07, and WA-08.
For the record, the normally conservative (in prediction, not necessarily ideology) Stuart Rothenberg is now projecting a Democratic gain of 25-30 seats in the House. That is worthy of a "wow." Even I only have the Dems picking up 19 House seats.
CA-03 #1--Moore (R): Rep. Dan Lungren (R) 45%, Bill Durston (D) 25%
CA-03 #2--Val Smith (R): Rep. Dan Lungren (R) 47%, Bill Durston (D) 27%
CO-SEN #1--Quinnipiac: Mark Udall (D) 48%, Bob Schaffer (R) 43%
CO-SEN #2--Quinnipiac: Mark Udall (D) 54%, Bob Schaffer (R) 40%
CO-SEN #3--Suffolk: Mark Udall 45%, Bob Schaffer (R) 34%, Others 3%
DE-GOV--Rasmussen: Jack Markell (D) 62%, Bill Lee (R) 34%
MN-SEN #1--Quinnipiac: Al Franken (D) 39%, Sen. Norm Coleman (R) 37%, Dean Barkley (I) 17%
MN-SEN #2--Quinnipiac: Al Franken (D) 38%, Sen. Norm Coleman (R) 36%, Dean Barkley (I) 18%
MO-GOV--PPP: Jay Nixon (D) 52%, Kenny Hulshof (R) 39%
NC-SEN--PPP: Kay Hagan (D) 46%, Sen. Liddy Dole (R) 44%, Others 5%
ND-GOV--MSU Moorhead: Gov. John Hoeven (R) 73%, John Mathern (D) 18%
ND-AL--MSU Moorhead: Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D) 60%, Duane Sand (D) 28%
NJ-03--Grove Insight (D): John Adler (D) 38%, Chris Myers (R) 34%
NJ-07--Benenson (D): Linda Stender (D) 40%, Leonard Lance (R) 31%, Others 8%
OK-SEN--TV Poll: Sen. Jim Inhofe (R) 53%, Andrew Rice (D) 40%
PA-04--Anzalone Liszt (D): Rep. Jason Altmire (D) 53%, Melissa Hart (R) 41%
PA-11--Research 2000: Lou Barletta (R) 43%, Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D) 39%
SC-SEN--SurveyUSA: Sen. Lindsey Graham 56%, Bob Conley (D) 40%
WA-08--Bennett Pitts (D): Darcy Burner (D) 49%, Rep. Dave Reichert (R) 44%
UPDATE/SPECIAL REQUEST:
If you look at my diaries, you know that I never ask people to do this. But I am asking those reading this to be sure to rec this diary. My concern, which was immediately validated, is that this is going to get buried by a dozen duplicate diaries saying "CBS +14!! OMG!!! OMG!!!". I think the big value of this diary is the state and non-presidential polling being all in one place. If you agree, rec this so that it does not slide off the list in the next ten minutes. Thanks much!!