There has been considerable talk on what Senator McCain has to do in order to prevail in the upcoming U.S. Presidential election, and how the last Presidential candidate to pull out a victory from being so far behind in the polls was President Reagan. Unfortunately, for the Republicans at least, this belief that McCain can pull off a Reagan is grasping at straws that are old and brittle and will not stand the test of time.
President Reagan is a sore spot for a number of liberals here at DKos. They call him a sociopath and other unpleasant things (though when you get down to it, are not most talented leaders sociopaths? It seems to be a character trait of those who achieve control of the masses, both among cults and on a political scale). The thing to remember is that Reagan is remembered fondly by a number of older Americans. It is these fond memories of a leader who brought us through tumultuous times (leading to the collapse of the U.S.S.R. and the U.S. becoming ascendant on the global theatre), and these memories helped the Republican party gain considerable power... power that the Neocons and Religious Right have perverted. It is these very Republicans who are so angry with the party right now. And this is a reason why Senator McCain raises the spectre of Reagan's triumph back in 1980.
Unfortunately for McCain, the political winds are blowing differently now than they were in 1980. Reagan managed to prevail while he was down in the polls while facing a sitting President who was in the midst of a diplomatic meltdown in Iran. Reagan capitalized on President Carter being distracted by doing his job and painted his opponent to be weak and ineffectual. It was an admirable tactic, politically. It doesn't have a chance of working today, because the political landscape is far different, due in part to President Bush.
Bush, through mismanagement of the country, has managed to bring us to the cusp of disaster. It is likely that the world will go into recession. But McCain is not running against Bush. He's a part of the same political party as Bush, and his record shows he has supported Bush's policies far more often than not. John McCain isn't the second coming of Ronald Reagan. Instead, he bears a far greater resemblance to Vice President Al Gore in 2000.
(Please, hold the stones and lower the pitchforks, I'm not insulting Mr. Gore here, I'm making a point.)
In 2000, the country was recovering from eight years of President Clinton. I personally dislike President Clinton. I feel he was a disgrace for his actions and he should have had the good grace and dignity to resign. Indeed, if he had then it is likely that President Gore would have won the 2000 Presidential election as a standing President during a period of stability and economic prosperity. I am not alone in this dislike of Clinton and it was by riding a wave of dislike for Clinton's actions (which tainted, by association, Vice President Gore) that President Bush was elected. Gore backed Clinton's policies and didn't turn away from Clinton when Clinton was being impeached. Al Gore was one of President Clinton's closest supporters, and the unpopularity of Clinton among a key part of the U.S. population led to Gore's losing the election.
In 2008, the country is recovering from eight years of President Bush. Much like Al Gore, Senator McCain was one of President Bush's closest supporters, with a voting record that at the end was lock-step with Bush even when Bush was becoming increasingly unpopular. As Vice President Cheney is not in a position to run for President, Senator McCain is his surrogate and has taken Al Gore's place as the candidate of choice running with the baggage of an unpopular leader.
Contrast that to Ronald Reagan, who was running against an incumbant who was too busy dealing with problems to run an effective Presidential campaign, and you have two images that do not overlap at all.
McCain is no Reagan. This does not mean we should relax our guard. There are methods of stealing the election, and the Republicans are already working to do just that. They may even let McCain lose, but use their election-stealing methods to prevail in several key Senate seats and protect their old guard. But we will not be seeing a surge of support at the last minute (unless Senator Obama does something truly stupid in the last three weeks of the election). There is no second coming of Ronald Reagan; not disguised as John McCain at least.
Robert A. Howard, Tangents Reviews